Weekend Picks & Analysis - two Total Goals selections...   

Friday 1st September 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Lower-league focus this weekend…
• Posh 5/1 at best…
• Two Total Goals selections…

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Lower-league focus this weekend….

The Premier League, Championship and Scottish Premiership are on hold for the International break this weekend – but we have a full set of League One and League Two games taking place…

• The likes of William Hill, Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power and NetBet are offering a particularly broad range of markets for the League One & Two fixtures, including the stats areas we cover on our site such as Corners and Cards

Posh 5/1 at best…

In yesterday’s Spotlight email we looked at how using the Goals stats can boost returns compared to the standard Match Result market…

Peterborough were the example I used, currently played 4 won 4 in League One. With matching early 100% form for Over 2.5 Goals, Both Teams to Score, Win & Over 2.5 Goals and Win & Both Teams to Score.

This Saturday the Posh travel to Doncaster, who have drawn both their Home games so far. The best price from that bunch of markets listed above is 5/1 (6.00) with Bet365 for Peterborough to Win & Both Teams to Score.

Doncaster were the 2nd-top team in League Two last season for Both Teams to Score games, but so far since promotion to the higher division they are only running at 50% for goals at both ends. Let’s get some more form in the book before going after more speculative prices that.

Two games standout in the Total Goals markets in League Two this weekend…

Two Total Goals selections…

Carlisle v Mansfield

League Two, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Carlisle games

Carlisle have an early 100% strike-rate for Over 2.5 Goals, with all 4 of their League Two games seeing 3 or more goals scored…

Including Cup games, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 6 of their 7 games overall this season.

Mansfield match up well with just one Clean Sheet from 6 games in all comps, and 3 out of 4 league games going Over 2.5 Goals.

There’s also a history of goals in this fixture at Brunton Park. Last season the scores were Carlisle 2 Mansfield 3 in the League Cup and Carlisle 5 Mansfield 2 in the league. And overall 4 out of 4 meetings between these sides at Carlisle in the last three seasons have seen 3+ goals.

Wycombe v Forest Green

League Two, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 out of 4 Wycombe games

There have been at least 4 goals in all 4 of Wycombe’s league games this season, with the score-lines being 2-2 (D), 3-2 (W), 4-2 (L) and 3-2 (W)…

Add in a 5-1 defeat to Bristol Rovers in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday night and you have a total of 5 payouts for both Over 2.5 Goals and the higher Over 3.5 Goals option from 6 games played in all comps.

Forest Green’s early-season results match up well, too – 3 of their 4 league games have seen 4+ goals scored. And the goals have been scattered at both ends of the pitch, their last two results being a 4-3 Home Win followed by a 5-1 Away defeat.

Plenty of goals so far then and with the above stats and score-lines in mind, the Over 2.5 Goals price looks good.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review email, and a look ahead at the week’s fixtures.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues