Weekend Picks & Analysis - Liverpool value at the seaside...   

Friday 1st December 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Liverpool value at the seaside...
• Robins start December on TV...
• Champions League next week...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

A rare Clean Sheet...

Our Goals analysis almost gave us two out of two winners on Wednesday night.

Everton thumped West Ham 4-0 to register their 9th Over 2.5 Goals result from their last 10 games in all comps, as newly-appointed manager Sam Allardyce watched on and applauded dutifully from the stands.

And while Liverpool put 3 past Stoke to keep up their crazy goals form (last 5 Away games in all comps have now seen a total of 26 goals), the Reds also managed to keep their first Clean Sheet in 7 Premier League Away games this season. That 3-0 win put pay to our Win & Both Teams to Score selection, which was available at odds of 37/20 (2.85) compared to 1/2 (1.50) for the Away Win.

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 10 of Stoke’s last 11 league games

This weekend’s football...

This weekend we have a full set of games in the Premier League, Championship and Scottish Premiership – there are two games in League One but the rest of Leagues One & Two are on hold for the FA Cup 2nd Round.

• The latest League Stats tables, Team Stats and Head-to-Head comparisons for every league are available for you to log-in and view on your members-only website – covering over 100 teams

• We have unique betting stats spanning 30+ markets, including Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points categories. The site is packed with info to assist you with your weekend selections

Remember we now have a mobile-friendly version of the site, too...

Log-in on your smart-phone, tablet, laptop or PC at:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Looking at the match-ups...

For our picks we’re looking for games where the stats match-up well for both teams – and the market & price represent decent value for us too.

Sometimes the stats are great but the betting options don’t fit.

For example...

Man City are joint-1st in our Premier League rankings for Over 2.5 Goals (71%), including an 86% Home record – and Sunday’s visitors West Ham have conceded 16 goals in their last 6 games.

However the bookies have priced this game up with one of the lowest Over 2.5 Goals prices of the season with that option short odds-on at just 1/4 (1.25).

We can get better prices elsewhere...

Liverpool value at the seaside...

Brighton v Liverpool

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Liverpool -2 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 7 of their last 10 games

Brighton are unbeaten at Home since the opening day of the season, and for a newcomer the Seagulls have held their own pretty well against the big boys so far...

Brighton lost 0-2 v Man City (0-0 until the 70th minute, final corners score = 3-10), lost 2-0 at Arsenal (corners = 6-5) and 1-0 at Man Utd (0-0 until a 66th minute own goal, final corners score = 5-0).

The pattern there is that the Top Six side has had to work hard for their win, with no massive score-lines but on each occasion coming out on top in terms of Possession and Corners won.

Liverpool’s visit this weekend could see that pattern continue...

The Reds are joint-2nd in the division for Most Corners results this season, including 5 out of 7 Away games (17%).

Brighton in comparison are joint-bottom of our Premier League standings with just 3 Most Corners wins from 14 games , including just 2 from 7 at Home – against struggling Crystal Palace and Everton.

Liverpool did enough to cover a -2 Corner Handicap (winning 3+ corners more than opponents) on their trip to Stoke on Wednesday night, as well on visits to Newcastle and Leicester this season.

The Reds have landed the -2 Corner Handicap in 7 of their last 10 league games overall.

The likes of 888 Sport have Liverpool as short as 4/7 (1.57) for this bet on Saturday, while other bookies have set their line higher at -3 Corner Handicap.

With that in mind, the standout prices below for Liverpool -2 Corner Handicap look a bit of value...

Robins start December on TV...

Bristol City v Middlesbrough

Championship, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

• Bristol City have won the Most Corners in their last 5 Championship Home games

Two promotion hopefuls do battle live on Sky Sports on Saturday evening, and it has the potential to be a good one...

Bristol City are 5th, Middlesbrough are 7th and both sides have won 4 of their last 6 games.

The bookies have this closely matched in the Match Result market, with The Robins given Home advantage, and the Most Corners market has been priced up 50-50 too.

However, the Corners stats make Bristol City a pretty clear favourite here...

City have won the Most Corners in 5 league games in a row at Ashton Gate, and in 7 out of 9 at Home for the season (79%). They are joint-2nd on our Championship table for Most Corners payouts, while Middlesbrough have landed that bet in just 3 of 9 Away games so far.

With this game live on TV we have the benefit of more stats markets available than usual for a Championship fixture. Bristol City look a decent price to win the Most Corners.

Champions League on Tuesday...

I’ll be away from my computer screen on Monday, so I’ll be back on Tuesday with a stats update for you – as well as Midweek Picks & Analysis for Match-day 6 in the Champions League...

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues