Picks & Analysis - 3/1 value for Liverpool v Man City tonight...

Wednesday 4th April 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Nice one Ronnie...
• Midweek Picks & Analysis – Champions League quarter finals...
• Stick with the Scorers...
• Liverpool v Man City – 3/1 value tonight...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Nice one Ronnie...

We were right to expect goals last night – and to concentrate on Cristiano Ronaldo...

Ronnie took just 3 minutes to land our Anytime Scorer bet at odds of 7/5 (2.40). And to top it off, he added another in the second half with a sensational bicycle kick. View the goal from the stands.

Ronaldo was applauded by both sets of fans and has now got a staggering 19 goals in his last 9 games for Real Madrid. He also becomes the first ever player to score in 10 consecutive Champions League games – a remarkable run stretching back to last season’s final.

After last night’s antics, our pre-season 4/1 (5.00) bet on Ronaldo to be the 2017/18 Champions League Top Scorer is looking very safe indeed. He’s now up to 14 goals, 6 ahead of the nearest rival.

Last night’s brace helped land our Over 2.5 Goals picks at odds of 11/10 (2.10), too. Final score: Juventus 0 Real Madrid 3.

In the evening’s other game there were also 3 goals, with Bayern Munich coming behind to win 2-1 at Sevilla...

We swerved the odds-on prices for Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score in that one in favour of a 2/1+ (3.00+) Anytime Scorer pick on Sevilla striker Wissam Ben Yedder, but this season’s Champions League 2nd-top scorer couldn’t add to his tally last night.

It was a profitable evening overall thanks to Ronaldo and Real Madrid, adding to our decent Easter weekend in the domestic leagues.

Stick with the Scorers...

The Champions League quarter finals 1st Legs continue this evening with two more big games:

• Barcelona v Roma
• Liverpool v Man City

We’re going with the Scorer stats again...

We were right to follow Ronaldo last night and we can’t ignore the big names this evening, either. However, we want to make sure we get a good price and the stats can help us out there...

In the Barcelona v Roma game, Over 2.5 Goals is a general 4/9 (1.44) and Lionel Messi is the Anytime Scorer favourite and odds-on at 4/7 (1.57) at best.

Last night we got 7/5 (2.40) for Ronaldo – bigger than you’d get on him in a normal, week-by-week match – and that’s the kind of thing we’re looking for...

3/1 value tonight...

Liverpool v Man City

Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport

• Mohamed Salah has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 9 of his last 11 games for Liverpool
  
• Sadio Mane has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 of his last 7 games for Liverpool

Mo Salah and Sadio Mane fit the bill for Liverpool v Man City...

Salah might not quite be in the Ronaldo bracket but he’s having a red-hot season by any other standard: 13 goals in his last 11 Liverpool games is impressive form to say the least.

The Egyptian has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 9 of those 11 games, and in the Champions League he’s got 6 goals from 7 starts – with 5 Anytime Scorer payouts.

Salah can be backed at 7/5 (2.40) and 11/8 (2.38) to score tonight. Compare that to the prices for the upcoming Premier League game at Everton where Salah is odds-on with every bookie available and as short as 8/13 (1.62).

Liverpool are the top scoring side in the Champions League and it was 4-3 when they played Man City in the league at Anfield in January – so there’s certainly a case to look for more than one goal-scorer option tonight...

Man City’s top Champions League scorers are Sergio Aguero (out injured) and Raheem Sterling on 4 goals each. Sterling is around 2/1 (3.00) to score at his old club but it’s worth noting he’s only found the net in 3 of his last 13 games.

Sticking with the Home team and the search for value...

Roberto Firmino is also around 2/1 and has got 7 for Liverpool in the Champions League – although just one in his last 5 games in all comps.

The third prong of Liverpool’s prolific attacking line-up is available at a bigger price...

Sadio Mane is level with Salah on 6 goals. He’s landed Anytime Scorer bets in 3 of his last 4 starts in the competition, and 3 out of 6 for the campaign.

Mane and Salah (and Firmino) were on the score-sheet in that 4-3 win v Man City earlier this season, and Mane & Salah also found the net in Liverpool’s 2-1 win at Crystal Palace last weekend.

Again, Mane is more like 2/1 (3.00) or less to score at Everton in the next game, whereas we can get bigger than that tonight, with a standout 3/1 (4.00) on offer.

We wouldn’t usually go for two players in the same game but the stats point to goals here, and with Over 2.5 Goals just 8/13 (1.62) and Both Teams to Score 4/7 (1.57) at best – the Anytime Scorer prices on two of Liverpool’s star men catch the eye.

If you’d backed Salah to level stakes at this best price in every Champions League start this season your ROI would be 71%, and for Mane your ROI would be 100%.

I’ll be back on Friday with your Picks & Analysis email for the weekend games, across the leagues.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues