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Picks & Analysis - a strange one at Coventry...  

Friday 4th May 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

  • Weekend Picks & Analysis...
  • A strange one at Coventry...
  • Goals at Mansfield...
WEEKEND PICKS & ANALYSIS

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Bring on the final...

Roma landed the -2 Corner Handicap on Wednesday night, winning the corner count 7-3 in an end-to-end 2nd Leg semi final against Liverpool...

There were 5 Yellow Cards in the game but none for our 3/1 picks, Federico Fazio or Jordan Henderson.

The game ended 4-2 to Roma on the night, with the tie finishing up 7-6 to Liverpool on aggregate – the highest ever total goals result in a Champions League semi final.

The 80%+ trend for Over 2.5 Goals in the Knockout stage continued this week, and everything surely points to goal again in the final on 26th May...

Liverpool will take on Real Madrid, were came through 4-3 on aggregate against Bayern Munich. The final should be fun. We’ll take a closer look at all the stats nearer the time.

Final day in the Football League...

It’s the final weekend of the ‘regular season’ in the Championship, League One & League Two this weekend, with a good few promotion, playoff places and relegation matters still to be settled.

In terms of final day trends, here’s a good stat that I came across this week: last season on the final day, 9 of the 12 games in League Two paid out on Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score. If you’ll looking to build a weekend acca, you could do worse than look to the Goals stats in that division again.

I’m focusing on two games in particular in League Two – see below.

And remember, as ever, your members-only Across the Leagues website is up-to-date with all the latest stats to help you with your own bet selections:

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A strange one at Coventry...

Coventry v Morecambe

League Two, Sat 3pm

  • Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 9 of Coventry’s last 10 games

An interesting one here with both teams having something to play for – albeit at different ends of the table – and a standout price which is one of the biggest Over 2.5 Goals prices I’ve seen in the league all season...

Coventry need a point to guarantee a play off place, while Morecambe need a point to guarantee survival in League Two.

However, English football is rarely that simple and a draw isn’t necessarily something to bank on here. The bookies are well aware of the situation though, with the draw priced as the favourite in the Match Result market at 7/5 (2.40), which is not something you see very often.

For me the Over 2.5 Goals stats and prices are of the most interest here...

Coventry have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals in 6 games in a row, and in 9 of their last 10. In recent games they’ve been prolific, scoring 6 last weekend, and then 2, 3 and 2 goals in the games before that.

Morecambe’s last 4 games have all gone Under 2.5 but anything can happen on the final day with relegation hanging over you, and Coventry landed Over 2.5 on their own in the first 43 minutes last weekend.

The price is key here, and in an Under/ Over market where there are just two options, odds of 13/8 (2.63) for another Over 2.5 Goals game involving Coventry are eye-catching to me...

Over 2.5 Goals is a best price 13/8 (2.63) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway, 8/5 (2.60) Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet.


Goals at Mansfield...

Mansfield v Crawley

League Two, Sat 3pm

  • Both Teams to Score has paid out in 10 Crawley games in a row

Great stats for Both Teams to Score here with Crawley on a 10-game run for that bet, and Mansfield the top team in the division for goals at both ends this season with a 73% Home strike-rate...

Both Teams to Score has paid out in 5 of Mansfield’s last 6 games, and they need a win here (and other results to go their way) to stand a chance of making the playoffs.

Mid-table Crawley have nothing to play for, and their games have been entertaining with a 2-2, 3-1, 5-3 and 3-2 in recent weeks.

Again, considering the stats, the price looks good here with the bookies only making it 50-50 for goals at both ends.

Both Teams to Score is a best price 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill, Betway, SunBets, NetBet, 10Bet.




Weekend Picks...

In summary, this weekend’s picks are:

  • Coventry v Morecambe – Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8 (2.63) with Paddy Power 

Latest odds here

  • Mansfield v Crawley – Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill

Latest odds here




I’ll be back on Tuesday with a Weekend Stats Review – and a look ahead at the midweek games in the Premier League.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues

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