Picks & Analysis - the key stat for the Merseyside derby...

Friday 6th April 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Scorers steal the show...
• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• The key stat for the Merseyside derby...
• Two Over 2.5 Goals picks...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Scorers steal the show...

‘High goals’ has been the theme of this season’s Champions League. And so far we’ve done a good job of latching on to that trend and finding decent prices in the right markets...

In the Group stage, 70% of games went Over 2.5 Goals. After all four of this week’s quarter final 1st Legs saw 3+ goals, that bet has now paid out in 16 of 20 Knockout fixtures (80%):

Juventus 0 Real Madrid 3
Sevilla 1 Bayern Munich 2
Liverpool 3 Man City 0
Barcelona 4 Roma 1

Three of this week’s games had the Over 2.5 Goals option as a strong odds-on favourite, with Sevilla v Bayern Munich at just 4/7 (1.57), Barcelona v Roma at 4/9 (1.44) and Liverpool v Man City at 8/13 (1.62).

In comparison to those three prices, we found good value with odds of 11/10 (2.10) for our midweek pick on Over 2.5 Goals for Juventus v Real Madrid.

So far this season we’ve had six out of eight winning Champions League picks in the Under/ Over Total Goals market.

We’ve also profited from the Goals stats by looking to the Scorer markets, with four out of six winning picks...

This week our Anytime Scorer selections did the business very nicely with Cristiano Ronaldo at 7/5 (2.40), Mohamed Salah at 7/5 (2.40) and Sadio Mane at 3/1 (4.00) all scoring – and all backed at bigger prices than you’d usually see them in a weekly domestic league game.

• The Champions League quarter finals continue with the 2nd Legs next week. I’ll be in touch on Tuesday & Wednesday with your Picks & Analysis

Derby day in the Premier League...

On to the weekend games now and Saturday is derby day in the Premier League with Everton v Liverpool on Sky Sports at lunchtime, followed by Man City v Man Utd in the 5.30pm kick off.

Man City can win the league by beating their Manchester rivals, but it’s the Merseyside derby that gets our attention on the stats – see below.

And remember, as ever, your members-only Across the Leagues website is up-to-date with all the latest stats to help you with your own bet selections:

• League Stats tables, Team Stats and Head-to-Head comparisons for every game are available for you to log-in and view on your members-only website
  
• We have unique betting stats spanning 30+ markets, including Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points categories, for over 100 teams

Log-in on your smart-phone, tablet, laptop or PC at:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

The key stat for the Merseyside derby...

Everton v Liverpool

Premier League, Sat 12.30pm – Sky Sports

• Everton have received the Most Cards in 13 of the last 15 Merseyside derbies in all comps (87%)

Liverpool are unbeaten against Everton in 16 games in all competitions. The odds of that run continuing this weekend are just 1/4 (1.25) at best (Double Chance – Liverpool or Draw).

But there’s another strong Merseyside derby streak that’s available at a better price...

Bets on Everton to get the Most Cards or Most Booking Points have paid out in 13 of the last 15 derbies in all comps.

That run includes 8 of last 10 Premier League meetings between these clubs, each of the last 4 – and 5 of the last 6 at Goodison Park.

The Premier League ‘Most Booking Points For’ table on our website shows that Everton have landed this bet in 50% of Home games this season, which is the 3rd-highest Home strike-rate in the division.

Looking closer at the stats, Everton have landed Most Cards and Most Booking Points bets in 4 out of 5 Home games v Top 6 sides – going in the referee’s book more often than their opponents against Tottenham, Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea.

Our ‘Totals’ table shows that only one Premier League team (Chelsea) have received fewer Yellow Cards than Liverpool this season.

On recent form, Liverpool have only got the Most Cards or Booking Points in one of their last 8 games in all comps.

Another significant stat for the Merseyside derby is that there have been more Red Cards in games between Everton & Liverpool than in any other Premier League fixture. However that trend has dried up a little in recent years with just one sending off in the last 12 meetings.

Rather than looking at the the Red Card betting, the Most Cards or Booking Points market is the one we want here. And considering the stats and recent history, odds of around 10/11 (1.91) for Everton look more than fair enough.

• Also available: Everton 0 Card Handicap (eg. Most Cards) at 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, Most Cards – Everton at 17/20 (1.85) with 888 Sport, Unibet
  

Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet):

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet):

Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Two Over 2.5 Goals picks...

Two games and prices in the Football League standout in the Total Goals markets this weekend...

Leeds Utd v Sunderland

Championship, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 9 of Leeds’ last 11 games

We had an Over 2.5 Goals winner on Leeds a couple of weeks ago and they look a good choice again this weekend with odds of Evens+ (2.00+) available...

Leeds are ranked 2nd in the Championship for this bet and it’s paid out in 6 of their last 7 at Elland Road, as well as in 9 of their last 11 overall.

Sunderland are in relegation trouble and are a bit of a mixed bag, however their most recent form shows plenty of goals with a 4-1 win at Derby followed by a 3-1 defeat at Home to Sheffield Wednesday over the Easter weekend.

The bookies make Over 2.5 Goals the slight outsider in the Under/ Over market here, and the stats suggest Over is the value.

Yeovil v Luton

League Two, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 4 of Luton’s last 6 games

Luton are the top scorers in League Two and have found the net at least once in each of their last 14 games...

On the opening day of the season they hammered Yeovil, 8-2. That’s a crazy score-line but there’s actually a bit of recent history for big scores between these two: last season Luton won 4-0 at Yeovil and also beat them 5-2 in the EFL Trophy.

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 4 of Luton’s last 6 games, and they’ve only kept one Clean Sheet in 10.

Yeovil come into this one on the back of a 6-2 win at Coventry on Monday...

I’ll be back on Monday with your Stats Review email, keeping you up-to-date on the latest results & trends.

Then on Tuesday we’ll be straight back into the Champions League.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues