Weekend Picks & Analysis - looking for Corners at The Hive...  

Friday 6th October 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Looking for Corners at The Hive...
• Goal-shy AFC Wimbledon can make it a dozen...
• Goals at both ends at Walsall...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Looking at the match-ups...

With International games taking place we have League One and League Two to focus on this weekend. In Wednesday’s Spotlight email we looked at a few top trends from those divisions...

Now that the markets are up, we can take the betting markets and prices available in to consideration.

For example, we talked about Notts County v Forest Green in regards to the Under 10.5 Corners stats. But now that the markets are up, the general line with the bookies is lower at Under 9.5 Corners – and that’s harder to make a case for.

Three games and prices do tick the box though...

Looking for Corners at The Hive...

Barnet v Coventry

League Two, Sat 12.30pm – Sky Sports

• Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 5 out of 5 Barnet Home games

It’s not that often we get a League Two game live on TV, and the good news is there’s a good stats match-up in this one and plenty of markets available too...

Barnet are 100% at Home for Over 10.5 Corners payouts this season (5 out of 5).

Coventry are the No.1 team in League Two for Most Corners payouts including 4 out of 5 on the road (80%). Barnet are also 80% at Home for getting the Most Corners, so both teams have the ability to win plenty of corner kicks...

The Head-to-Head comparison on our site shows that both Barnet at Home and Coventry Away are averaging 7.0 Corner For each per game, with Barnet games averaging 11.8 Total Corners and Coventry’s 10.6.

The Totals table on our site shows that only two League Two teams have won more Corners at Home this season than Barnet’s total of 35, and only two teams have got more than Coventry’s total of 35 Away.

Barnet’s last 6 league games have had Total Corners tallies of 10 (A), 17 (A), 11 (H), 11 (A), 13 (H), 11 (H).

Coventry’s last 2 Away games have seen Total Corners scores of 11 and 15.

With this game on TV, we get a good range of Corners markets – and odds of around Evens (2.00) for another Over 10.5 Corners game at The Hive Stadium look good value.

Goal-shy Wimbledon can make it a dozen...

Oxford Utd v AFC Wimbledon

League One, Sat 3pm

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 11 out of 11 AFC Wimbledon games this season

We looked at AFC Wimbledon’s eye-catching Under 2.5 Goals form in our Wednesday Spotlight email. Here’s a recap:

That bet has paid out in 100% of their games, and AFC Wimbledon have actually failed to score in their last 3. They’ve only scored 5 league goals all season, and are ranked 22nd of 24 teams in our League One Totals chart for Shots on Target.

This weekend they travel to Oxford, who are on a 6-game run for Over 2.5 Goals… Wimbledon’s stats still have the edge for me though, seeing as they also have a low Goals Conceded total of 11 that is only bettered by four teams who are in the top seven spots in the league table.

In other words, AFC Wimbledon have relegation form in front of goal but a defensive record that puts them in with the playoff contenders.

AFC Wimbledon are the No.1 team in League One for Under 2.5 Goals right now; in fact, their 11 out of 11 record is the best in the country.

And it’s worth pointing out that Oxford’s games against League One’s 2nd and 3rd place Under 2.5 Goals teams – Scunthorpe (91% record) and MK Dons (82%) have both gone ‘Under,’ with a 1-0 defeat and a 1-1 draw respectively.

The Total Goals market doesn’t seem to taking AFC’s strong Under 2.5 Goals form fully into account here.

Goals at both ends at Walsall...

Walsall v Shrewsbury

League One, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 out of 5 Walsall Home games

Our research for this one tells us that there have been goals at both ends in 9 of Walsall’s 11 league games this season, including a 100% Home record (5 out of 5).

Shrewsbury are flying high at the top of the league – the only unbeaten team left – but crucially have only kept one Clean Sheet in their 5 Away games (and that was at low scorers AFC Wimbledon). Both Teams to Score has paid out in each of their other 4 Away games.

Another way to look at the ‘Both Teams to Score’ chances is to look at the Scored In and Clean Sheets tables on the League One – Match Results pages on our site...

These show that Walsall haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in any of their 11 games so far, but have scored in all 5 at Home and 9 out of 11 overall... while Shrewsbury have found the net in all 11 games.

Shrewsbury’s goalkeeper Dean Henderson (on-loan from Man Utd) is on England Under 21 duty; he’s been between the sticks for 10 of the Shrews 11 league games this season, so his absence could be felt this weekend.

All in all this is one of the strongest Goals match-ups of the weekend, with Both Teams to Score around the price we usually get for a league game like this – but with stronger stats than normal.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review email, and a look at week’s fixture list.

Enjoy the football...

P.S

Old £1 coins become obsolete on 15th October. Before you spend or exchange them, take a closer look. Some are worth more than you think.

This FREE report reveals which ones to hang onto....

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues