Midweek Picks & Analysis - Juventus with a head-start...  

Wednesday 7th March 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks & Analysis...
• Ronnie is Mr Reliable...
• Champions League – another big game tonight...
• Juventus with a head-start...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Ronnie is Mr Reliable...

We had one winner one loser and a small profit from our picks last night, thanks to that man Cristiano Ronaldo...

Champions League top scorer Ronaldo kept up his remarkable record for finding the net in every game, opening the scoring for Real Madrid in the 51st minute (PSG 1 Real Madrid 2).

Ronnie’s fine headed goal landed our Anytime Scorer bet at a best price of 29/20 (2.45) – which in Ronaldo terms, is a very good price. He’s got a 100% record for that bet in this season’s competition, now standing at 8 games out of 8.

Back in England our Championship analysis didn’t pan out quite as well. At half time, the corners score was 3-1 and Sheffield Wednesday were on course to land the -1 Corner Handicap and keep up their 100% record for that bet at Home v Bottom Half sides. But Ipswich came out on top in the second half, winning the game 2-1 and winning the corner count 6-4.

• Since the start of the knockout stage last month, we’ve had 7 out of 8 winning picks in the Champions League

• Overall, we’ve had 15 winners from out last 20 picks in all comps

Champions League – another big game tonight...

The 2nd Leg games continue this evening with Man City v Basel and Tottenham v Juventus.

Today’s fixtures have a similar look to last night; Liverpool were 5-0 up going into their Home leg v Porto – Man City have a 4-0 Away lead and host Basel at the Etihad tonight. That Liverpool game ended 0-0 and the Man City game also looks something of a ‘dead rubber.’

Last night’s Big Game was undoubtedly PSG v Real Madrid, and Tottenham v Juventus is the box office one today – with the score at 2-2, it’s in the balance.

It makes sense for us to concentrate on Wembley...

Juventus with a head-start...

Tottenham v Juventus

Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport

• Juventus +1.5 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 6 of their last 7 Champions League games

Tottenham have won the Most Corners in 80% of Premier League games at Wembley this season, but they haven’t been able to boss the corners so easily against top European opposition...

In the Champions League Group stage, they were out-cornered in 2 of their 3 Home games – 11-1 by Real Madrid and 8-2 by Borussia Dortmund. In both those games Spurs were ahead on the scoreboard and the visiting team were going for goals.

It’s a similar situation this evening with Juventus ‘behind’ from the kick off due to Spurs having 2 Away goals. A 0-0 or 1-1 draw is no good for the Italians, so there is a requirement to attack here.

Juve have won the Most Corners in 10 of their 14 Away games in the Italian Serie A this season (71%), and more significantly their corner-winning form in Europe has been good...

Juventus are averaging slightly more corners per Champions League game than Tottenham – 6.57 Corners For for Juve compared to 5.86 for Spurs.

The bookies make Tottenham as short as 1/2 (1.50) for the Most Corners tonight, with Juventus around 2/1 (3.00). The market that interests me though is the Corner Handicap, where Juventus can be backed with a head-start...

Juventus +1.5 Corner Handicap pays out if they get the most corners, the same amount of corners as Tottenham or one corner less than Tottenham.

That bet has paid out in 6 of Juve’s 7 Champions League games, and in each of their last 9 games in all comps.

In comparison, backing Spurs to beat a -1.5 Corner Handicap has only paid out in 2 of their 7 Champions League games.

With the aggregate score situation favouring the Home team and requiring Juventus to score one goal at the very least, backing the Away team with a corners head-start looks a good tactic here – especially with the above stats in mind.

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Picks & Analysis.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues