Spotlight - what difference does a new manager make?
Wednesday 8th November 2017
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Spotlight – what difference does a new manager make?
- Form, style and personnel...
- Four clubs on ‘new manager’ watch...
What difference does a new manager make?
Welcome to this week’s Spotlight email.
I said that this season I was throwing the Spotlight chamber open to requests, and this week’s topic comes from Across the Leagues member Steve T, who wrote in last month to ask:
“How much store do you put by a manager rather than a team? With Leicester and Everton looking for new men at the helm and West Ham probably not far behind, will this affect your predictions?
Bayern Munich recently dispensed with Ancelotti but you made no allowance for a possible change in style when advising the high corner rate would continue as before and that proved correct. But surely in other cases teams will change the way they play, rendering previous stats less useful?”
Since Steve emailed me last month:
- Leicester have appointed Claude Puel as their new manager
- Everton have got David Unsworth in temporary charge
- And West Ham have indeed jumped on the Managerial Merry-go-round with David Moyes brought in this week to replace the sacked Slaven Bilic
Form, style and personnel...
The answer to Steve’s main question is: Yes – of course we must be aware of who is picking the team, who is drawing up the tactical vision on the pitch and who is kicking the hairdryers across the changing room.
We can look to the past form of a manager...
For example, ‘West Ham to be Relegated’ was a Top 5 bet on Oddschecker after Moyes was named this week. Moyes was last seen taking Sunderland down, finishing rock bottom of the Premier League.
And we can take note of the playing style associated with a manager...
For example, before Sam Allardyce took over at Crystal Palace in December 2016, 8 of Palace’s last 9 games had gone Over 2.5 Goals. Big Sam had an immediate impact, tightening things up with 3 of Palace’s next 4 games all going Under 2.5 Goals.
‘Low goals’ is a well-established theme associated with Allardyce (he even had a 100% Under 2.5 Goals record with England – although I’m not sure ‘one game out of one’ counts)...
Back in his Bolton days, Allardyce made an art of the low-scoring result. Take the 2005/6 Premier League season, where Allardyce’s Bolton side played out 13 games (out of 38) where the final score was 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1.
At the time of writing, Allardyce is one of the main contenders for the full time job at Everton. There have been 14 goals in Everton’s last 3 league games – including a 3-2 win and a 2-5 defeat. It’s fair to say score-lines like that could become a thing of the past if Sam takes over at Goodison Park.
There’s also the player personnel factor to consider with a new manager. When the Transfer Window rolls around again in January, we might see the likes of Leicester, West Ham and Everton dabbling there – under the influence of a relatively new manager at the helm.
Some managers like certain types of players; some players do better under certain types of manager.
There’s plenty to consider. It all goes into the melting pot when it comes to my research for our weekly Picks & Analysis emails.
Business as usual at Bayern...
In answer to the other part of Steve’s question – Bayern Munich was an interesting case as new manager Jupp Heynckes had been at the club before. Bayern had won 6 out of 8 games in all comps before his arrival this season – and they’ve won 6 out of 8 since he got back in the dugout.
It’s business as usual for Bayern in many respects. Including when it comes to the Most Corners and Corner Handicap markets, where we’ve had plenty of success with Bayern in the Champions League in recent seasons...
They’ve got a 90% Most Corners record in the competition, going back five seasons and counting.
That corner-winning dominance is linked to a squad containing the likes of Arjen Robben and Franck Robery (and now Kingsley Coman) rather than any one particular manager’s fingerprints.
Bayern have won the Most Corners in 6 out of 8 games in all comps since Heynckes took over.
Four clubs on ‘new manager’ watch...
This is a relevant topic and one we’ll return to again.
Right now Paul Clement (Swansea), Sean Dyche (Burnley), Tony Pulis (West Brom) and Antonio Conte (Chelsea) are all single-figure prices in the ‘Next Manager to Leave’ market – and that’s just in the Premier League...
I’ll be back on Friday with your full Weekend Picks & Analysis email. It’s the last International break of the year; with no topflight action, we’ll be focusing on the weekend games in League One and League Two.
P.S
Have you got a subject to put under the Spotlight? Drop me an email here.
See you Friday...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
