Weekend Picks & Analysis - Terriers & Swans good as gold...

Friday 9th March 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Terriers & Swans as good as gold…
• Sky Blues strong at Home…

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

2nd Legs continue next week…

We’ve had 7 winning picks from 9 from the Champions League since the start of the knockout stage last month.

It could have been 8 from 9 but Juventus got two goals in quick succession in the second half at Tottenham on Wednesday night – and after that it was all-out Spurs attack with the corner count ending up 6-1. Until Juve scored, our Juventus +1.5 Corner Handicap pick had been in a winning position.

Overall we’re doing well right now. The Champions League continues with four more 2nd Leg ties next week across Tuesday & Wednesday.

Before then we have the weekend football and two more stats match-ups & prices catch my eye today – see below.

And remember, as ever, your members-only Across the Leagues website is up-to-date with all the latest stats to help you with your own weekend selections:

• League Stats tables, Team Stats and Head-to-Head comparisons for every game are available for you to log-in and view on your members-only website

• We have unique betting stats spanning 30+ markets, including Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points categories, for over 100 teams.

Log-in on your smart-phone, tablet, laptop or PC at:

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Terriers and Swans as good as gold…

Huddersfield v Swansea

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Under 3.5 Cards has paid out in 7 Swansea games in a row

These sides are both in the relegation scrap – but that doesn’t mean it will turn into an actual fight…

The assumption here would be both teams are desperate for Premier League survival and that desperation will spill over into flying tackles and a loss of discipline.

However, when it comes to discipline these clubs have two of the best managers in the league…

David Wagner’s Huddersfield have seen 8 of their last 9 games go Under 3.5 Cards.

In front of their own fans, that Total Cards bet has been landed 6 times in their last 7 at the John Smith’s stadium. And in 4 of those games, the Terriers haven’t got any cards themselves at all.

Swansea boss Carlos Carvalhal has had a positive impact in terms of results – lifting them from bottom of the table to 3 pts above the drop-zone since taking over at the end of December – and also in terms of behaviour with Under 3.5 Cards paying out in each of their last 7 Premier League games.

In 5 of their last 6 games, Swansea haven’t got a single booking at all.

The Referee also ticks the ‘low cards’ box here. Under 3.5 Cards has paid out in 8 of the last 9 Premier League games that Michael Oliver has been in charge of.

Those are all remarkable stats so it’s somewhat surprising to see Under 3.5 Cards available (instead of a lower line) – and priced up as the slight underdog in the Under/ Over market, too.

The league positions and relegation-fight factor looks to be the force behind that, but there is little evidence that these two sides in particular are about to start getting ugly.

Under 3.5 Cards looks value here. Oddschecker is showing hardly any Total Cards or Total Booking Points options for this game, but the markets are available and I have spent some time shopping around various sites for them earlier today…

• Cards and Booking Points markets are also available with Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Marathonbet, NetBet and 10Bet

Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet):

Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Booking Points bets explained (eg. Skybet, William Hill):

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Sky Blues strong at Home…

Coventry v Barnet

League Two, Sat 3pm

• Coventry have won 6 of their last 7 Home games

We don’t often venture into the standard Match Result market but we’ve had winners on all three occasions that we have since the turn of the year.

After being snowed off last week both sides have yet to play a game in March. Coventry look a good choice this weekend at a decent price…

The Sky Blues have won 6 of their last 7 at Home in League Two and are 8th in the table with an eye on the Playoffs.

Barnet in comparison are rock bottom of the league and have lost 6 of their last 8 Away. They’ve won just 2 of their last 13.

The formbook says Coventry at Home are a good proposition right now – and the price looks good too.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stat Review taking stock of the latest stats & trends – followed by our next Champions League Picks & Analysis on Tuesday.

Enjoy the football...

P.S
It’s Cheltenham Festival next week – THE biggest meeting on the racing calendar, bar none…

Lookout for a very special offer coming your way this weekend with your chance to get Cheltenham advice, analysis and big-value race selections direct to you inbox – EVERY DAY of the Festival. Keep an eye on your inbox on Saturday morning.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues