An opening day warning for the Premier League...
Wednesday 9th August 2017
In your Across the Leagues – EXTRA email today:
- Premier League – opening day Home Win warning...
- Predictor update...
- Paul Merson the man to beat...
The 2017/18 season is up and running with the first round of English Football League and Scottish games played last weekend...
This weekend it’s the turn of the Premier League, with the action getting underway on Friday night (Arsenal v Leicester – Sky Sports).
Ahead of the big kick off, I’ve been going through the stats. And I’ve found something to watch out for this weekend...
Premier League – opening day Home Win warning...
If you claimed your free copy of my recent Premier League report then you’ll know I’m not a fan of Home Wins – for the pretty good reason that over the course of a season, they don’t make money (view the free report here).
The case against Home Wins is backed up by recent ‘opening day’ results in the Premier League.
Take a look at the numbers...
Over the last three seasons, the 10 games played in the first round of Premier League fixtures have produced:
Home Wins = 3
Draws = 3
Away Wins = 4
Home Wins = 2
Draws = 3
Away Wins = 5
Home Wins = 2
Draws = 2
Away Wins = 6
That’s just 7 Home Wins from 30 opening weekend games over the last three years (23%). There were 8 Draws, and 15 Away Wins.
Considering that low Home Win rate, it’s not surprising to find that backing the Home Win to level stakes in all 10 games on the opening weekend of the 2016/17 season would have lost you money, to the tune of a -28% ROI.
That should serve as a warning for this week’s set of Premier League fixtures.
Seven of the opening 10 games have the Home team as the Match Result favourite, with 6 of those 7 priced as an odds-on favourite for the Home Win.
Recent Premier League history says to avoid those short prices.
So where should we look instead? Watch out for your ATL Extra email on Friday containing some Premier League standout stats with much more encouraging figures & strike-rates, from alternative to the bookies’ standard Win Lose or Draw market.
As promised, our NEW 2017/18 Premier League Predictor game will be up and running soon. This season we’ve got a completely new game for you, with your chance to compete exclusively against other ATL Extra readers.
For the first time, we’ll be offering weekly cash prizes for the top-scoring Predictor player, as well as our overall end of season 1st place prize.
We’re planning to launch the game next weekend. I’ll email you when it’s time to enter your first set of match and score-line predictions.
Paul Merson the man to beat...
Every weekend we also look at the Premier League predictions posted by Mark Lawrenson on the BBC and Paul Merson on Sky Sports.
Both men’s 2016/17 prediction records have been under scrutiny recently...
It turns our ex-Liverpool player Lawrenson never once predicted his old club to lose last season (!).
While Merson proved a successful ‘tipster’: backing his match selections would have generated a 14% ROI (view the full stats on Merson here).
I’ll be looking at the week one predictions from Lawrenson and Merson in your Friday ATL Extra email – along with some Premier League stats and pointers of my own...
See you on Friday afternoon.
Across the Leagues Extra