Spotlight - How to profit from Spurs at Wembley...
Wednesday 10th January 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Spotlight – How to profit from Spurs at Wembley...
- Corners lead the way in dominance...
- Weekend Picks & Analysis coming up on Friday...
How to profit from Spurs at Wembley...
Much has been made of Tottenham Hotspur’s temporary move to Wembley...
A sticky set of European games last season (one win from 4 games) triggered talk of a ‘Wembley curse.’
And things didn’t get much better at the start of 2017/18, with defeat to Chelsea followed by draws with Burnley and Swansea adding fuel to the frenzy.
Since then results have picked up for Spurs at the national stadium though, winning 6 out of 8 ‘Home’ games in the Premier League – as well as 3 wins out of 3 in the Champions League, including a 3-1 victory against Real Madrid.
One thing has remained consistent though and that’s been Tottenham’s corner-winning form at ‘Home’...
Spurs won the Most Corners by scores of 14-4, 10-7 and 11-1 in those 3 winless games v Chelsea, Burnley and Swansea. Understandable perhaps for a team chasing goals to get the most corner kicks – but the trend continues in Tottenham Home games often regardless of whether they win, lose or draw...
There is a cream rises to the top theory at work here. The Top Six sides in the Premier League – the so-called Rich Six club, no less – are also the Top Six on our Most Corners chart for the top flight:
The argument that the ‘best’ teams get the most corners is also backed up by the fact that the Top Six in the Premier League are also ranked in those top places for Goals Scored, Possession, Total Shots and Shots on Target – as illustrated by the Totals tables on our website.
The Top Six also win the most games. But what’s interesting is that Tottenham, despite having the Top Scorer in the division in Harry Kane, have actually picked up the fewer points at Home this season than the rest of the Top Six.
When it comes to winning the Most Corners, Spurs have an 82% record this season (9 out of 11 games) – compared to 6 out of 11 Home Wins (55%).
Last season, at White Hart Lane, Tottenham finished 2nd on our Most Corners chart with a 79% Home record (15 out of 19 games). A change of stadium has not dimmed their corner-winning prowess.
Corners lead the way in dominance...
As we’ve established, Tottenham are a highly-ranked team in plenty of areas – Shots, Goals, Possession and Corners.
But when it comes to the betting markets, the stats say the Corners are the area we should be concentrating on.
Spurs have landed -1 Corner Handicap and -2 Corner Handicap bets in 73% of their league games at Wembley (8 out of 11 games) and covered the -3 Corner Handicap in 7 games (64%).
All those options have paid out more times than backing the Tottenham Home Win.
And depending on the calibre of opponent, bets like the -2 or -3 Corner Handicap will likely be available at greater odds than backing Spurs in the Match Result market.
That’s certainly the case in the early prices up for this weekend’s upcoming game v Everton at Wembley, which is live on BT Sport on Saturday evening. At the time of writing, William Hill are the only bookie up, and they have Spurs at just 1/4 (1.25) for the Home Win, but 8/15 (1.53) for the -3 Corner Handicap.
Tottenham were a similar price to beat West Ham at Wembley last week – 2/7 (1.28) – but had to settle for a 1-1 draw. However, they dominated the corners, 7-1 – enough to land a -5 Corner Handicap.
Weekend Picks & Analysis coming up on Friday...
That Tottenham trend is exactly the kind of thing we should be using the stats to latch onto: an angle on a team that can prove more profitable than the more popular Match Result/ Home Win bet.
I’ll be back on Friday your Weekend Picks & Analysis email, highlighting opportunities from across the leagues – and taking a closer look at Tottenham v Everton...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
