Picks & Analysis - Real Madrid v Juventus tonight...  

Wednesday 11th April 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Roma rule...
• Midweek Picks & Analysis – Champions League quarter finals...
• Goals expected again...
• Real Madrid v Juventus – Cards markets catch the eye tonight...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Roma rule...

We weren’t on Roma at 40/1 To Qualify v Barcelona last night – let alone the 80/1 for the 3-0 Correct Score.

But we did manage to profit from Roma’s remarkable turnaround by backing them to win the Most Corners...

Trailing 4-1 from the 1st Leg, the Italians were always going to need to attack last night, and with that situation along with a strong Home corner-winning record, they were our Most Corners pick at Evens+ (2.00+), winning the corner count on the night, 6-3.

That result meant we came out okay for the evening, with our Man City Most Booking Points pick falling short by a good few cards. Liverpool won the game 2-1, and got the Most Booking Points, 40 pts to 20 pts (4 Yellows Cards for Liverpool, 2 for City).

Goals expected again...

On to tonight’s remaining two Champions League quarter final 2nd Legs, and once again there are goals expected...

Over 2.5 Goals paid out in 8 out of 9 Real Madrid games so far, and in all 6 quarter final games in this season’s competition so far – but odds of just 4/7 (1.57) are hard to get excited about for tonight’s 2nd Leg v Juventus. We got better in the 1st Leg with an Over 2.5 Goals winner at 11/10 (2.10), with the score 3-0 to Madrid.

Bayern Munich v Sevilla was 2-1 to the Germans in the 1st Leg last week. Over 2.5 Goals tonight is the shortest price of any quarter final tie with odds of just 4/11 (1.36).

In the Scorer markets...

Our pre-season 4/1 Top Scorer pick Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in a record 10 Champions League games in a row. Ronaldo has scored in 6 out of 6 games v Juventus in his career, racking up 9 goals against the Italians in total.

We got Anytime Scorer odds of 7/5 (2.40) for Ronaldo last week, but he’s odds-on this time at 4/6 (1.67) in general.

In search of a better price, the stats lead us to the Cards & Booking Points markets...

Cards markets catch the eye tonight...

Real Madrid v Juventus

Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport

• Over 4.5 Cards paid out in 7 of Madrid’s last 8 Knockout stage games, including all 3 so far this season

No team has ever come back from a 0-3 Home defeat in the Champions League. That’s the 60/1 task for Juventus this evening, and while that price would suggest this is a ‘dead rubber,’ games between these two experienced European sides are rarely dull – and Roma reminded everyone last night that football is indeed a funny ol’ game.

The Total Cards and Total Booking Points prices are looking a bit more generous than I was expecting. Tonight’s various ‘Over’ options (see below) give a payout if there are 5 Yellow Cards, or less with a Red, and the stats say that’s a very real possibility...

This is the second most played fixture in Champions League history and 7 of the last 10 meetings between Real Madrid and Juventus have gone Over 4.5 Cards and Over 40 Booking Points.

The Total Cards score in the 1st Leg last week was 6 Cards (65 Booking Points), with 4 Yellows and one Red.

Over 4.5 Cards and Over 40 Booking Points has paid out in 7 of Madrid’s last 8 Knockout stage games, including all 3 so far this season.

Those bets have paid out in 6 of Juventus’s 9 Champions League games this season, including all 3 so far in the Knockout stage.

Looking beyond the two teams...

Five out of 6 quarter final games so far have paid out on Over 4.5 Cards and Over 40 Booking Points, including both of last night’s 2nd Legs.

And looking at tonight’s match Referee – 3 of Michael Oliver’s 4 Champions League games this season have paid out on Over 4.5 Cards and Over 40 Booking Points.

Also available:

• Over 45 Booking Points at 6/5 (2.20) with William Hill, 50+ Booking Points at 6/4 (2.50) Skybet

• Over 4.5 Cards at 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365, Evens (2.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 9/10 (1.90) Betway

Booking Points bets explained (eg. Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Skybet):

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet):

Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

2/1+ player picks...

The Player To Be Carded prices are worth a look here too, and two Juventus players stand out...

Juventus have got 21 Yellow Cards and one Red Card in the competition so far – the highest total number of cards of any team in the Champions League this season.

Madrid haven’t got the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in any of their last 10 games in all comps, and have landed that bet in just 2 of 9 Champions League games this season.

Juventus have got the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in all 3 Knockout games so far. They are 8/13 (1.62) at best for that bet tonight, but we can find better prices by looking to their most likely candidates to go in the book...

Defender Giorgio Chiellini has been booked in 3 of his last 8 games for Juventus. And a key stat for me is that the Italian has received a Yellow Card in each of Juventus’ last 3 two-legged Champions League ties – all of which came in the Away leg, at Tottenham, Monaco and Barcelona respectively...

Chiellini has been carded in 2 out of 5 appearances v Real Madrid, with one Yellow Card and one straight Red to his name against the Spanish giants.

There’s a difference of opinion here with some bookies making Chiellini as short as 10/11 (1.91) to get card – whereas we can get attractive odds of 11/4 (3.75) and 5/2 (3.50) elsewhere.

Fellow Juve defender Alex Sandro has committed 18 Fouls in the competition so far – more than any other player – and has been booked in 4 of his last 7 games.

Both men will be suspended for the next round if they get a card tonight, but with Juve’s situation as precarious as it is, that will be the least of their concerns during the heat of battle...

The advice here is to split a stake between Chiellini and Alex Sandro.

I’ll be back on Friday with your Picks & Analysis email for the weekend games, across the leagues.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues