Weekend Picks & Analysis - the Premier League begins...

Friday 11th August 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• The Premier League begins...
• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Trust Tottenham on the Corner Handicap...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every Friday we’ll be looking at the weekend fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Our focus will be on the stats and on the ‘alternative’ markets...

By that I mean you won’t see much attention paid to Home Wins or standard Match Result win-lose-or-draw bets in your Picks & Analysis emails from me. Take a look at your free report to find out why.

Instead we’ll be concentrating on markets such as Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points – areas where the stats can lead us to profitable trends that are a little off the beaten track.

This weekend’s big event is the start of the Premier League...

The Premier League begins...

A look at recent ‘opening day’ results in the Premier League backs up our case against Home Wins...

As I mentioned in Wednesday’s ATL (Across the Leagues) EXTRA email update, there were just 3 out of 10 Home Wins on the opening weekend last season.

Over the last three seasons, there have been a total of just 7 Home Wins from 30 opening weekend Premier League fixtures (23%).

With 7 of this weekend’s 10 games featuring a Home Win favourite in the Match Result market – and 6 of those 7 odds-on to win – the stats warn us away from those short prices.

Short prices are also something we should stay away from this early in the season, no matter what the market. Last season’s Top 2 ranked teams for Under 2.5 Goals payouts in League One play each other on Saturday (Walsall v Oldham). Both started the new season with Under 2.5 Goals games last weekend, and the last 5 league meetings between these two have all paid out on that low-scoring option, too...

However, both Walsall and Oldham featured in uncharacteristic 3-2 score-lines in the League Cup in midweek – and most importantly in terms of today’s analysis, odds of just 1/2 (1.50) in general for this weekend’s League One encounter are probably best left alone with so little form in the book.

As I say, it’s very early days.

But the opening rounds can sometimes present us with an opportunity if it looks like the bookies have a tricky market to price up. That appears to be the case in the game between newly-promoted Newcastle and last season’s Premier League runners-up, Tottenham...

Trust Tottenham on the Corner Handicap...

Newcastle Utd v Tottenham Hotspur

Premier League, Sun 1.30pm – Sky Sports

• Tottenham were ranked 2nd in the Premier League for Most Corners bets last season

The conundrum here is that ‘Newcastle v Tottenham’ sounds like – and now once again is – a Premier League fixture. But last season’s Magpies form comes from a dominant campaign down in the Championship...

I prefer to put my trust in the topflight team’s record and that makes Tottenham a decent proposition for the Most Corners and -1 Corner Handicap here.

Last season Spurs won the Most Corners in 74% of Premier League games; the 2nd best record in the top division. Zoom in further and the stats show us that Tottenham had a strong corner-winning record Away from home against bottom half teams...

The assumption here is that as a newly-promoted side we can lump Newcastle in as a ‘bottom half’ side in the Premier League on day one of the 2017/18 season...

Spurs won the Most Corners in 8 out of 10 Away games v bottom 10 sides last season – and landed the -1 Corner Handicap (eg. winning 2+ corners more than opponents) in 7 of those 10 trips.

Looking closer still at the specific game by game results, Tottenham won the Most Corners in all 3 Away games v newly-promoted sides last season, beating a -1 Corner Handicap on 2 out of 3 occasions.

For the Premier League season overall, Spurs averaged 2.3 corners per Away game more than opponents. With their average Away Corners For tally of 6.6 Corners per game clearly above the division average of 4.8.

As the fixture computer would have it, Newcastle’s first game back in the Premier League is against the team they played in the final game of their 2015/16 relegation season. That was pretty much a ‘dead game’ in the end with Newcastle beating Tottenham 5-1 – although if you want to know the corners stats, the score was 8-3 to Spurs.

Of more significance is Newcastle’s Premier League Home record from when Rafael Benitez took over that season: backing visitors with a -1 Corner Handicap paid out in 4 out of 5 games in that stint.

Obviously there have been a good few personnel changes on the pitch for the Magpies since then. But Rafa is still in charge – and Tottenham are a consistent Premier League corner-winning team...

All things considered, and with this game live on TV and plenty of Corners markets set to be available this weekend, Tottenham -1 Corner Handicap at double-your-money odds makes the cut as our first pick of the new Premier League season.

Enjoy the opening round of Premier League games.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review email – and our plans for the week ahead.

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues