Midweek Picks & Analysis - from Barcelona to Bradford...   

Wednesday 14th March 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks & Analysis...
• Barcelona v Chelsea – a big one on the Cards...
• Goals value at Bradford...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Roma rule – but not on the Corners this time...

We had a rare losing night in the Champions League last night. Roma beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 to go through to the quarter finals, but lost the corner count, 2-6 – taking out our Roma -3 Corner Handicap pick.

In the Anytime Scorer market we went for Roma’s in-form Cengiz Under at 2/1 (3.00), but the man we also looked at – market leader Edin Dzeko at as short as 7/10 (1.70) – popped up with the only goal of the game for Roma. Attacking midfielder Under was substituted 10 minutes after that goal.

We move on to tonight’s football and two stats opportunities & prices catch the eye – in Barcelona and in Bradford...

A big one on the Cards...

Barcelona v Chelsea

Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport

1st Leg score: 1-1

• There have been 5 or more Cards in 6 of Barcelona’s 7 Champions League games

This is the game of the week on paper – Barcelona v Chelsea is a Champions League fixture with history and with the score-line at 1-1 there’s all to play for at the Camp Nou this evening...

Favourite backers will be following Lionel Messi to score at odds-on – he’s as short as 4/7 (1.57) to find the net, as he did in the 1st Leg at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea fans will be looking at odds of 3/1+ (4.00+) for their team To Qualify, as they did in a famous 2nd Leg at Barcelona back in 2012.

But the Cards & Booking Points markets are of most interest to me here...

There were 5 Total Cards in the 1st Leg (5 Yellows = 50 Booking Points). The bookies are asking for one more card than that in the ‘Over’ betting for tonight’s decisive 2nd Leg – and that looks fair enough.

So far in this season’s Round of 16, 2nd Legs, Over 5.5 Cards has paid out in 3 of the 6 games played. This is clearly a massive game with a lot at stake and that situation can often lead to some desperate or reckless late tackles and behaviour from players facing elimination from the contest or fighting like mad to get through to the next round.

There have been 5+ Cards in 6 out of 7 Barcelona games in the competition so far. They’ve got twice as many Yellows as Chelsea, but interestingly Barcelona are well ahead on ‘Fouls Suffered’ (92, compared to 61 for Chelsea) – so there’s a case for both teams getting in the Referee’s book here.

Talking of the Referee, this is also a big night for the Slovenian in charge, Damir Skomina. He has produced 5+ Cards in 4 of his last 5 UEFA games – including 10 Yellows (100 pts) in the Europa League game between Celtic and Zenit last month, and 6 Yellows (60 pts) in the Champions League fixture between Barcelona and Juventus earlier this season.

All things considered, Over 5.5 Cards as the slight underdog in the Under/ Over market looks a good option tonight. The odds comparison sites are showing hardly any options for us here, but I’ve shopped around and several bookies are offering this bet for us...

• Cards/ Booking Points markets also available with BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 32RedSport):

Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Booking Points bets explained (eg. Skybet, William Hill):

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Goals value at Bradford...

Bradford v Wigan

League One, Wed 7.45pm

• Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 7 of Wigan’s last 8 Away games

The stats make a big case for goals here, so it’s surprising to see the bookies making Over 2.5 Goals the underdog in the Total Goals market...

Two factors might have something to do with it. Bradford will be without their top scorer Charlie Wyke, who is suspended. And Wigan play Southampton in the FA Cup quarter finals on Sunday.

However, addressing those two points – Wyke has only scored once in his last 6 Bradford games, and got a modest 3 in his last 12 appearances – so his absence does not mean Bradford will suddenly lose all their firepower.

And Wigan boss Paul Cook is on record as saying he will field a full-strength side this evening, regardless of that big FA Cup match coming up at the weekend. You would think so too, seeing as Wigan are just 3 pts off the automatic promotion places in League One.

It’s important of course to note team news and match situations. But in this case that info doesn’t dent my opinion on the stats...

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in each of Bradford’s last 7 Home league games, and in 7 of their last 10 overall. For the season, Bradford are our No.2-ranked team in the division for that bet.

Wigan are the top Away scorers in League One, and Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 7 of their last 8 Away games. The Latics drew 3-3 v Scunthorpe last weekend and 2-2 at Blackburn the weekend before.

The recent bad weather – along with cup commitments for opponents – has meant that Bradford haven’t played a game since 24th Feb...

That’s a long wait, especially at this level where the fixtures usually come thick and fast, week after week. Again, you can read that as you like – Bradford could be ‘up for it’ and ‘chomping at the bit’... or ‘slow out the traps’ and ‘a little rusty’... Either way, those traits could lead to a high-goals game.

The bottom line for me here is that this is a strong stats match-up – and the price looks good.

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Picks & Analysis – it’s FA Cup weekend but we also have four Premier League games and a big schedule of Football League fixtures to look at...

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues