Midweek Picks & Analysis - going for Goals in Moscow...

Tuesday 17th October 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks & Analysis...
• Champions League – going for Goals in Moscow...
• League One – low goals stats standout tonight...
• More to come tomorrow...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Champions League Match-day 3 – Goals theme continues...

The midweek football kicks off with Champions League, League One and League Two games this evening.

So far this season, with two rounds completed, 24 out of 32 Champions League games have gone Over 2.5 Goals (75%)...

According to the bookies’ prices, these are the strongest Over 2.5 Goals candidates this week:

Barcelona v Olympiakos @ 1/4 (1.25)
Bayern Munich v Celtic @ 1/4 (1.25)
Anderlecht v PSG @ 3/10 (1.30)
Man City v Napoli @ 2/5 (1.40)
Real Madrid v Tottenham @ 4/9 (1.44)
APOEL Nicosia v Borussia Dortmund @ 1/2 (1.50)

Some short prices there. But the stats highlight another Champions League game with a good case for goals this week – and at a bigger price, too...

Going for Goals in Moscow...

CSKA Moscow v Basel

Champions League, Wed 7.45pm – BT Sport

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 19 of CSKA’s last 26 Champions League games

This is a big game in Group A. With Benfica currently bottom on zero points and playing Group leaders Man Utd this week, CSKA Moscow and Basel are level on 3 points and both have a great chance of getting 2nd place and making it past Christmas to the Knockout stage.

Match-day 3 is a bit early for an all-or-nothing ‘Cup tie’ feel to the game, but the stats history for these two says this one is more likely to explode into a high goals thriller than be played out as a tense war of attrition...

As we mentioned last time out in the Champions League when we had a winning Over 2.5 Goals pick on CSKA Moscow v Man Utd (final score 1-4), CSKA Moscow are our top-rated historical side for Over 2.5 Goals bets, with a 71% overall strike-rate over four previous seasons. View our Stats Report including four seasons of CSKA stats here.

CSKA’s Home games in Europe are averaging 2.8 Total Goals. They’ve kept no Clean Sheets in the 24 games (12 Home, 12 Away) featured in our report. So far this season their opening two Champions League games have been a 2-1 win and 4-1 defeat.

After conceding 4 goals on Match-day 2, CSKA’s Russian goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev is now up to 45 Champions League games without keeping a Clean Sheet.

Of course, Basel must come into this to make it a good match-up, and they tick enough boxes for me with not only the match/ Group situation mentioned above, but also the fact that both their games so far have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

They’ve lost 3-0 at Man Utd, and beaten Benfica 5-0 which was Basel’s biggest ever Champions League win.

Looking a little further back, Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Basel’s last 6 Champions League games, and in 10 of their last 15 Away games in all comps.

The bookies make this a 50-50 game in the Total Goals Under/ Over market, but the stats say Over 2.5 Goals is the strongest contender.

Low goals stats standout tonight...

AFC Wimbledon v Rotherham

League One, Tue 7.45pm

• Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 12 of AFC Wimbledon’s 13 league games this season

While we’re anticipating plenty of goals in the Champions League, the stats make a very strong case for Under 2.5 Goals in this League One game this evening...

AFC Wimbledon are the top-rated team in the land for Under 2.5 Goals this season, with a 92% strike-rate giving 12 payouts from 13 games. That includes a 100% Home record for Under 2.5 Goals.

Rotherham have a noteworthy 83% Away record for ‘low goals’ games, with Under 2.5 Goals paying out in 4 of their 6 trips so far.

Rotherham’s 4 most recent games in League One have all gone Under, as have their last 4 Away games.

The Head-to-Head comparison, and Scored In, Clean Sheets and Both Teams to Score tables on our site all point us in the same direction, too...

AFC Wimbledon have only found the net once in 5 games. Rotherham have kept 3 Clean Sheets in a row.

AFC Wimbledon’s Home games are averaging 1.5 Total Goals. Rotherham’s Away figure is 1.7.

There have been goals at both ends (Both Teams to Score) in just one of 6 Home games for Wimbledon and just one of 6 Away games for Rotherham.

All things considered, Under 2.5 Goals looks the standout stats match-up of the evening in the Football League.

More to come tomorrow…

The bookies haven’t got all their stats markets up for Wednesday’s Champions League games yet.

There’s one game in particular that I’ve got my eye on – Bayern Munich v Celtic.

I’ll email you tomorrow with an update, once we have all the markets and prices to hand.

Until then,

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues