Across the Leagues Extra

Standout Stats for the FA Cup final...

Friday 18th May 2018

In your Across the Leagues – EXTRA email today:

  • Standout Stats for the FA Cup final…
  • Chelsea v Man Utd, Sat 5.15pm…
  • Your FREE World Cup – Top Scorers report…

Standout Stats for the FA Cup final...

The ‘regular season’ is over but there are still some big games to be played this month – and a few trophies to be won…

This weekend sees the FA Cup final at Wembley. And next weekend the national stadium hosts the Football League Playoff finals – while in Kiev on 26th May there’s the small matter of the Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid.

I can’t tell you much about the Royal Wedding this Saturday, but I can give you some stats for the FA Cup…

Chelsea v Man Utd

Saturday, 5.15pm – Wembley Stadium
Live on BBC One and BT Sport

Match odds:
Chelsea 15/8 (2.88)            Draw 21/10 (3.10)     Man Utd 8/5 (2.60)

To Lift the Trophy:
Chelsea Evens (2.00)          Man Utd 5/6 (1.83)

Let’s take our annual look at the FA Cup Final history books...

Cup Final trends:

Stats & betting markets apply to Normal Time only (not Extra Time)

  • Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 13 of the last 20 finals (65%)
  • The 1-0 Correct Score has paid out 6 times out of 20 (30%)
  • 7 of the last 8 victories in Normal Time have been settled by a one-goal Winning Margin

The FA Cup history books tell us to expect a narrow score-line.

And the head-to-head record between these sides says to expect a close one, too. Four out of 5 FA Cup meetings between these sides (going back 20 years) have gone Under 2.5 Goals. And more recently:

  • 7 of the last 10 meetings between Chelsea & Man Utd in all comps have paid out on Under 2.5 Goals
  • 3 of the last 4 meetings have been decided by a one-goal Winning Margin, including both league meetings this season (Man Utd 2 Chelsea 1, and Chelsea 1 Man Utd 0)

It’s a similar story in the end-of-season Premier League form:

  • 8 of Man Utd’s last 10 Premier League wins/ losses were settled by exactly one goal
  • 7 of Chelsea’s  last 10 Premier League wins/ losses were settled by exactly one goal

The bookies make Under 2.5 Goals the favourite in the Under/ Over market at around 8/15 (1.53).

For bigger prices, the stats points to the Winning Margin (one goal) and Correct Score (1-0 or 2-1) options…

With Man Utd finishing 2nd in the league and boasting the superior defensive record, the Man Utd By 1 Goal Winning Margin is my pick, at 7/2 (4.50).

If you’re in the Chelsea camp, you can get around the same price on the Blues to edge it by one goal…

FA Cup final – latest odds here

P.S

Your FREE World Cup – Top Scorers report…

There’s less than a month to go until Russia 2018. I’m getting the ball rolling with a look at the Top Scorer stats – including four players to follow at Each Way prices at the World Cup this summer…

If you haven’t claimed your FREE World Cup 2018 report yet, follow the link below and get your copy now…

Get your free World Cup 2018 – Top Scorers report here

I’ll be back next weekend with Standout Stats for the Champions League final.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra

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