Spotlight - what the stats say about the Old Firm derby...
Wednesday 20th September 2017
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Spotlight – what the stats say about the Old Firm derby…
- In search of value…
- Picks & Analysis coming up on Friday…
This weekend sees the first ‘Old Firm’ derby of the season, with Rangers taking on Celtic at Ibrox on Saturday lunchtime – live on Sky Sports…
As promised, we’re taking a look at the historical Cards & Booking Points stats today.
It’s tempting to assume that a ‘derby’ match will have a fair few reckless tackles, plenty of passion and keep a referee busier than usual…
But we must not assume. The stats are there to help us.
And we can then use our findings to judge whether or not we’re getting a good deal from the bookies’ Cards & Booking Points markets when the weekend prices go up.
Before we start, a note on how most bookies calculate ‘Cards’ and ‘Booking Points’:
Cards (eg. Bet365):
- Yellow Card = 1 Card
- Red Card = 2 Cards
- Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Booking Points (eg. William Hill, Skybet):
- Yellow Card = 10 pts
- Red Card = 25 pts
- Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Now let’s take a look at the derby-day formbook…
What the stats say about the Old Firm derby…
I’ve compiled the Cards & Booking Points totals for the last 20 league meetings between Rangers and Celtic.
Here are the figures…
2016/17:
Rangers 1 Celtic 5
Cards = 4
Booking Points = 40 pts
Celtic 1 Rangers 1
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 60 pts
Rangers 1 Celtic 2
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 60 pts
Celtic 5 Rangers 1
Cards = 9
Booking Points = 95 pts
Sending Off
- Two Cup meetings in the four years when Rangers were out of Scottish Premiership, both with 5 Cards (50 Booking Points)
2011/12:
Celtic 3 Rangers 0
Cards = 3
Booking Points = 30 pts
Rangers 3 Celtic 2
Cards = 7
Booking Points = 85 pts
Sending Off x 3
Celtic 1 Rangers 0
Cards = 4
Booking Points = 40 pts
Rangers 4 Celtic 2
Cards = 5
Booking Points = 55 pts
Sending Off
2010/11:
Rangers 0 Celtic 0
Cards = 5
Booking Points = 50 pts
Celtic 3 Rangers 0
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 60 pts
Rangers 0 Celtic 2
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 60 pts
Celtic 1 Rangers 3
Cards = 5
Booking Points = 50 pts
2009/10:
Celtic 2 Rangers 1
Cards = 10
Booking Points = 105 pts
Rangers 1 Celtic 0
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 65 pts
Celtic 1 Rangers 1
Cards = 4
Booking Points = 40 pts
Rangers 2 Celtic 1
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 60 pts
2008/09:
Rangers 1 Celtic 0
Cards = 6
Booking Points = 60 pts
Celtic 0 Rangers 0
Cards = 7
Booking Points = 70 pts
Rangers 0 Celtic 1
Cards = 3
Booking Points = 30 pts
Celtic 2 Rangers 4
Cards = 11
Booking Points = 120 pts
Sending Off x 2
The stats show that over those last 20 Old Firm league meetings…
- Games averaged 61.75 Booking Points; approx. 6 Yellow Cards
- 15 of the last 20 league meetings (75%) had 5+ Cards (50+ Booking Points)
- 4 of the 20 games featured a Sending Off (20%)
In search of value…
With a set of figures to hand, the next step is to compare what the stats are saying to what the bookies are saying.
The early signs are that the bookies are over-estimating the chances of Saturday’s game being a ‘tear up’…
Only a couple of bookies have prices us so far:
- Stan James go 5/4 (2.25) that there will be a Sending Off in the match. As true odds, that implies a 44% chance of someone seeing Red. The numbers above make it just a 20% chance
- William Hill are going odds-on at 8/13 (1.62) for Over 65 Booking Points. That’s one Yellow Card (10 pts) higher than the game average above, requiring 7 Yellows (or 5 plus a Red) to win
In other words, so far, betting ‘Over’ the Total Booking Points, or backing a Sending Off, looks poor value compared to the stats from the last 20 meetings.
And in such cases – betting ‘Under’ can actually prove the value. Or ‘no bet’ would be the call.
We’ll take a further look in Friday’s Picks & Analysis email, when we’ll have more markets and prices to look at – across the leagues.
See you Friday…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
