Weekend Picks & Analysis - Saints on the Corners...

Friday 20th October 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Champions League update...
• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Saints on the Corners...
• Going for the hat-trick on top-rated Walsall...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Bayern make it look easy...

Before we start on the weekend games, an update on the midweek Champions League action:

Bayern Munich dominated Celtic on Wednesday night with a 3-0 victory and a 12-3 corners win, comfortably landing our -4 Corner Handicap pick.

Bayern have truly exceptional corners stats. In their 3 Champions League games this season the corners scores have been: 13-1, 18-1 and 12-3.

• Bayern have won a total of 43 corners; the next best team on the list are Juventus who are some distance behind on 28

We’ve had 2 out of 2 winning Corners bets on the German giants so far this season. We’ll be looking for more opportunities as the competition progresses.

It’s not always as straightforward as that Bayern-Celtic game...

In the week we looked at the 75% trend for Over 2.5 Goals games in this season’s Champions League.

Match-day 3 saw 11 of the 16 fixtures go Over 2.5 Goals – but frustratingly not our CSKA Moscow v Basel pick (final score: 0-2).

The last five minutes of that one saw Basel have a series of dangerous counter attacks. To say that Dimitri Oberlin could have had a hat-trick for the Swiss side is no understatement. As it was, he took just one of his late chances.

• CSKA remain our top-rated team for Over 2.5 Goals payouts over the last four Champions League seasons and counting, with a 70% overall record

• So far this season, 73% of all Champions League games have now gone Over 2.5 Goals

On to the weekend games now...

There’s another full set of Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two and Scottish Premiership fixtures this weekend.

You can view our latest Head-to-Head stats & form comparisons, League Stats and Team Stats by logging-in to your members-only Across the Leagues website:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Looking at the match-ups...

For our weekend picks we’re looking for games where the stats match-up well for both teams – and the market & price represent decent value for us too.

Sometimes the stats are great but the betting options don’t fit.

Take Man City v Burnley this weekend, for example...

Man City are 100% for Most Corners, -1 Corner Handicap and -2 Corner Handicap bets (8 Premier League games out of 8). They’ve also landed -3 and -4 Corner Handicaps in all 4 league games at the Etihad Stadium.

Burnley have been out-cornered in 4 out of 4 Away games, with -1 and -2 Corner Handicaps paying out in all those games too.

A great stats match-up. But the market rules out a bet for me, with the general line at the bookies being Man City -7 (seven) Corner Handicap at around Evens (2.00)...

City have only covered -7 Corner Handicap (eg. winning 8+ corners more than opponents) in one of 12 games in all comps this season.

There are better opportunities for us elsewhere...

Saints on the Corners...

Southampton v West Brom

Premier League, Sat 5.30pm – BT Sport

• Southampton -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 out of 5 Home games

Southampton are solid corner-winners at Home and West Brom look a good match-up here...

Southampton have won the Most Corners in 4 out of 5 Premier League games at St Mary’s this season, with -1 Corner Handicap bets also paying out in those 4 games (winning 2+ corners more than opponents).

The Possession stats link up well with this trend, with Southampton averaging 60% Possession per game. Only Man City, Tottenham and Arsenal can better that.

West Brom on the other hand are bottom of our Premier League Totals table for Possession (38%).

Having a lot of Possession doesn’t necessarily mean a team will win a lot of Corners, but it certainly helps.

Last season West Brom were ranked second-bottom in our stats for Most Corners wins, with just a 29% record overall. Including an 8-3 corners defeat at Southampton.

This season Southampton are averaging 7.6 Corners For per Home game, compared to 4.0 for West Brom Away.

The Saints are around 1/2 (1.50) for the Most Corners, but we can do better with the -1 Corner Handicap option which has the same winning strike-rate at St Mary’s this season...

• Southampton -1.5 Corner Handicap and Southampton -1 Corner Handicap are the same bet with a different name. Both pay out if Southampton win 2+ corners more than West Brom 

Going for the hat-trick on top-rated Walsall...

Doncaster Rovers v Walsall

League One, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 15 of Walsall’s last 16 games in all comps

We’ve had a Both Teams to Score winner on Walsall two weekends running and the price looks good for the hat-trick this weekend...

Odds of 10/11 (1.91) are available for Both Teams to Score. That price suggests a flip-of-the-coin element to this market but Walsall’s stats make a very strong case for goals at both ends.

Walsall are the No.1 team in League One for Both Teams to Score with an 86% overall record (12 payouts from 14 games).

That’s actually the best strike-rate for any of the teams covered on our site across the Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premiership combined.

Last season Doncaster finished as the No.2 ranked team in League Two for Both Teams to Score. Now they’ve moved up a division and their recent form is encouraging for goals this weekend, with Rovers’ last 3 Home games ending 2-1, 4-1 and 1-2.

Doncaster have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 9 league games.

Walsall are yet to keep a single Clean Sheet in 17 games in all competitions this season.

Last season’s top scorer John Marquis returns from a one-match ban for Doncaster this weekend.

Walsall have found the net in 15 of their last 16 games in all comps – and conceded in 15 of those 16 too.

All things considered, the stats make this a strong Both Teams to Score contender and the price looks good.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review, taking stock of the latest stats & results.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues