Weekend Picks & Analysis - Brighton value for Bookings...  

Friday 23rd February 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Brighton value for Bookings...
• Pilgrims in the winning habit...
• Both Teams to Score at Walsall...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Champions League continues to deliver...

It was another good week for our Champions League picks. Four out of four winners this week makes it six out of seven from the Knockout stage 1st Legs.

Our Wednesday night analysis gave us an Under 2.5 Goals payout from Sevilla v Man Utd (0-0), and a Most Corners winner on Roma at Shakhtar Donetsk (corners = 9-8 to Roma). That corner count ended up being close, but Roma were 7-1 ahead on the corners at one stage.

• The 2nd Legs begin on Tuesday 6th March, and we’ll be covering each set of games with match-day stats & advice 

Before then we have plenty of domestic football to enjoy – starting this weekend with games in the Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premiership. See below for my weekend picks.

And remember, as ever, your members-only Across the Leagues website is up-to-date with all the latest stats to help you with your own weekend selections:

• League Stats tables, Team Stats and Head-to-Head comparisons for every game are available for you to log-in and view on your members-only website

• We have unique betting stats spanning 30+ markets, including Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points categories, for over 100 teams.

Log-in on your smart-phone, tablet, laptop or PC at:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Brighton value for Bookings...

Brighton v Swansea

Premier League, Sat 3pm

• Brighton have got the Most Bookings in 11 of their 13 Home games (85%)

Brighton are our top-rated Premier League team for Under 3.5 Cards bets (78% overall record), but they have an even stronger record for getting the Most Cards or Booking Points at Home...

The Seagulls have landed Most Cards and Most Booking Points bets in an eye-catching 11 out of 13 games at the AmEx stadium. Narrowing the form down that record stands at 9 of their last 10 at Home and 3 out of 3 since the turn of the year.

Swansea look a good match-up here. They’ve got the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in just 4 out of 13 Away games (31%), and overall are third-bottom of the division for that bet (26%).

The Swans have been well-behaved since Carlos Carvalhal took charge at the end of December, receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in just 2 out of 7 Premier League games.

In fact, in 3 of their last 4 league games Swansea haven’t picked up any Cards or Booking Pts at all.

With all those stats in mind, it’s surprising to see Brighton at 2/1 (3.00) for this bet. As the Home team they are by default given a bit of leeway, but the stats make Brighton the No.1 team in the league for this bet – at Home.

• Also available: Most Booking Points – Brighton is 11/8 (2.38) with Skybet, 13/10 (2.30) William Hill. Most Yellow Cards – Brighton is 37/20 (2.85) with Marathonbet 

Cards bets explained (eg. 888 Sport, Unibet, Bet365):

Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Booking Points bets explained (eg. Skybet, William Hill):

Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)

Pilgrims in the winning habit...

Plymouth v Bradford

League One, Sat 3pm

• Plymouth have won 7 of their last 8 Home games

Plymouth are 7th in League One – and joint-top of our overall Form table right now with 5 wins in a row...

The Pilgrims have won 7 of their last 10, and lost just one of their last 14. That’s exceptional form and they look a solid proposition keep it going this weekend. At Home, Plymouth have won 7 of their last 8 stretching back to November.

Bradford are 8th in League One, level with Plymouth on 50 pts and on the edge of the Playoff places, but their form sheet reads very differently. Bradford have lost 5 of their last 7, and won just twice in 12 games in all comps.

Since sacking Stuart McCall as manager, Bradford’s results have improved slightly with two draws – although both required equalising goals in the last 10 minutes. They drew 1-1 at 6th-place Charlton in Simon Grayson’s first game in charge last weekend.

The Home Win is 6/4 (2.50) but Plymouth – Draw No Bet is a more preferable option for me, giving the safety net of stakes returned if it’s a draw. That bet has given 10 winning payouts and 3 money-back returns from Plymouth’s last 14 games.

Both Teams to Score at Walsall...

Walsall v Blackburn Rovers

League One, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score has paid out in 7 of Blackburn’s last 8 Away games

The bookies make it 50-50 for Yes or No – but the stats say Both Teams to Score...

Walsall have been near the top of our League One chart for that bet all season; they’re currently 2nd with 5 payouts from their last 7 games and 3 from their last 4 at Home.

Blackburn have been one of the form teams in the land for this bet in recent weeks, with goals at both ends in 8 of their last 10 games – and in 7 of their last 8 Away.

These two met in the reverse fixture just last month (30th Jan), with Blackburn winning 3-1 and Both Teams to Score landed before half time.

With recent form in mind, the price for Both Teams to Score looks pretty good here.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stat Review taking in the latest stats & trends.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues