Midweek Picks & Analysis - Goals opportunity in Scotland tonight...  

Tuesday 24th October 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks & Analysis...
• Scottish stats in the Spotlight...
• Goals opportunity at Hamilton tonight...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Scottish stats in the Spotlight...

There are six midweek games taking place in the Scottish Premiership – three tonight and three tomorrow.

I’d originally intended to do a Spotlight feature today, rounding up the top overall trends from the Scottish Premiership stats on our website.

But having done my research and taken a closer look at the midweek fixtures in Scotland, I’m focusing on one game in particular where the stats & markets look to match up well for us. See below for the Picks & Analysis.

On the ‘overall’ theme, it’s good to see a handful of bookies pricing up stats markets for tonight’s televised game – Hibernian v Hearts on BT Sport...

As I write, Corners and Cards/ Booking Points markets are available for that live game with the likes of Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power and BetVictor.

Including in particular a good range of Most Corners (or ‘Corners Match Bet’) and Corner Handicap markets with those five bookmakers.

The selection of markets isn’t as good as we get with the Premier League or Champions League. But nevertheless it’s encouraging to know that when we have a good match-up from the Scottish Premiership stats, we will also likely get the chance to put it into action in the relevant and available markets with the bookies.

One area that is always widely covered by the bookies is Goals, and the Under/ Over 2.5 Goals market is where we’re heading in Scotland this evening...

Goals opportunity at Hamilton tonight...

Hamilton Academical v Partick Thistle

Scottish Premiership, Tue 7.45pm

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 Hamilton 9 league games in a row

This game features two struggling teams – Hamilton are 10th, Partick are bottom in 12th – and the stats point to Goals...

Hamilton are our top-rated team in Scottish Premiership for Over 2.5 Goals bets, with 9 payouts from 10 games (90%).

The Accies have lost 6 in a row but have managed to score in all 6, and have actually found the net in each of their last 9 games.

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 4 of Partick’s last 6 games in all competitions.

And Thistle haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in the league since April, a run of 16 games – including 10 this season.

These teams are ranked joint-top of the Scottish Premiership for ‘early goals.’ With bets on Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before paying out in 80% of games, including 5 out of 5 Hamilton Home games, and 6 of Partick’s last 7 games.

Four of Partick’s 10 league games have actually seen a goal scored within the opening 10 minutes.

The Time of First Goal – Under/ Over market is only available with Paddy Power (30 mins) and Marathonbet (28 mins) for this one, and perhaps isn’t the best hunting ground for our pick this evening. However those early-goal trends do hint at the potential for goalmouth action at New Douglas Park tonight.

Over 2.5 Goals is widely available at Evens+ (2.00+), and with the stats in mind that looks the value option in the Total Goals – Under/ Over market.

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Picks & Analysis email, with a full schedule of Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two & Scottish Premiership games to look at.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues