Weekend Picks & Analysis - Corners value in the Championship...

Friday 29th September 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• Looking at the match-ups...
• Two Home Corners picks in the Championship...
• Follow a 100% trend at Wycombe...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Looking at the match-ups...

We had two out of two winning picks in the Champions League on Wednesday night, from games where the stats matched-up well – and the bookies’ prices were in our favour compared to what our stats & analysis was telling us.

Moving onto this weekend’s domestic games the key is once again to find fixtures where both teams’ stats & trends fit together for a particular bet – and where we can get a competitive or value price on that outcome.

Of course, it’s never as simple as Team A + Team B = Winner. There are always other factors to consider...

Take Huddersfield v Tottenham in the Premier League this weekend, for example:

We’ve already had a couple of ‘Most Corners’ winners on Huddersfield at Home this season. They have a 100% Most Corners record from their 3 Home games so far, following on from a 91% Home record in the Championship last season.

Tottenham have been out-cornered in their last 2 Premier League Away games, at West Ham and Everton.

All this would lead us to think Huddersfield are a great value proposition for the Most Corners in Saturday’s game, as a 4/1 (5.00) underdog in that market.

That may well prove to be the case.

But having been doing this a long time, I know that Spurs are one of the strongest corner-winning sides around. They were 2nd in the Premier League for Most Corners bets last season, including a 68% Away record that was only bettered by Man City.

What’s more, newly-promoted Huddersfield are yet to face one of last season’s Top 5 teams. Spurs have won 3 out of 3 Away games so far. If Huddersfield prove hard to break down, Tottenham could end up running up a big corners score themselves.

These are the kind of things I think about. These are the kind of things we need to take into account.

I’ll report back on Monday how that Huddersfield-Tottenham corners score went. For today, there are three games in the lower divisions where the teams, stats and prices look good for us.

Starting with two live-on-TV games in the Championship – the first of which kicks off at 7.45pm this evening...

Two Home Corners picks in the Championship...

QPR v Fulham

Championship, Fri 7.45pm – Sky Sports

• QPR have won the Most Corners in 5 out of 5 league games at Loftus Road

QPR have a 100% Home record for Most Corners payouts so far, and at around Evens (2.00) they look decent value to keep that strike-rate up tonight...

Fulham have won the Most Corners in just 2 of their 5 Away trips so far, and are averaging 4.6 Corners For per Away game compared to QPR’s 9.0 Corners For at Home.

QPR have drawn twice in the last seven days, winning the Most Corners both times – 8-6 at Home v Burton and 6-2 Away at Barnsley.

Their other Home corners scores have been: 7-5, 9-4, 11-5 and 10-1 in QPR’s favour.

The Home team are a decent price to win the Most Corners again this evening.

Reading v Norwich

Championship, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

• Reading have won the Most Corners in 6 of their last 8 league games

Reading have won the Most Corners in 3 games in a row in the Championship, and in 3 of their 4 Home games so far...

Norwich on the other hand have been out-cornered 13-1 (A), 3-6 (H) and 6-2 (A) in their last 3 games.

On the road, the Canaries have won the Most Corners just once in 5 attempts.

Reading are averaging 3.8 Corners per Home game more than opponents, and with just one win from 4 Home game so far, they’ve been finding themselves in situations where they need to go up the pitch...

That could happen again here; Norwich are eight places above Reading in the league table and have had 2 very respective wins in their last 2 Away games – winning 1-0 at both Sheffield Utd and Middlesbrough (losing the corners battle in both).

Again, the Home team look the value for the Most Corners here.

Follow a 100% trend at Wycombe...

Wycombe v Barnet

League Two, 3pm

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 100% of Wycombe Home games

The stats on our website show plenty of teams with strong form in the Goals markets. However, as I alluded to at the start of today’s email, they aren’t all playing an opponent that matches up well – or available at a particularly appealing price this weekend.

Wycombe and Barnet are two teams that do look to match-up well all-round, though...

Wycombe are 5 out of 5 at Home for Both Teams to Score, and Barnet are 4 out of 5 (80%) Away for that bet.

In the last week Wycombe have won 2-3 v Crewe (H) and 2-1 (A) at Colchester. Barnet have lost 1-2 at Home and lost 2-1 Away.

Goals have been going in at both ends of the pitch; Barnet have found the net in each of their last 7 games in all comps, while all 5 of Wycombe’s Home league games have paid out on both Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score.

The bookies’ odds make this game around a 57% chance for goals at both ends. The early season 100% Home v 80% Away form says differently.

I’ll be back on Monday with your Weekend Stats Review email, and a look ahead to next week’s fixtures.

Enjoy the football...

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Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues