Midweek Picks & Analysis – going for Goals at Goodison...    

Wednesday 29th November 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks & Analysis...
• Going for Goals at Goodison...
• Liverpool rollercoaster to continue...
• Coming up this weekend...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

“We should have been smoking cigars...”

Those were the words of Jose Mourinho last night, after his Man Utd side won 4-2 at Watford.

United had been 3-0 up with the last 10 minutes approaching – but shipped 2 goals to slip to 3-2, before calming any nerves with a late goal for a 4-2 win.

Amidst all that, Man Utd went from 4-1 ahead on the corner count (a winning position for our -2 Corner Handicap bet) to a final corners tally of 5-5.

The Hornets’ late rally denied us there, and defied United’s strong season-long corners form.

Watford are still languishing near the bottom of our Most Corners chart though, with just 3 payouts from 14 games now (21%).

On to tonight’s action now and the midweek Premier League fixture list continues with 6 more games. With the stats and markets in mind, two of them catch the eye...

Going for Goals at Goodison...

Everton v West Ham

Premier League, Wed 8pm – BT Sport

• Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Everton’s last 9 games in all comps

This could turn out to be the last chance for a while to target Everton in the Over 2.5 Goals market...

With Sam Allardyce named today as their new manager, Big Sam will be expected to revert to type; shut up shop and sort out Everton’s leaky defence (with the ultimate aim of getting them away from the relegation zone as quickly as possible).

Allardyce will be at Goodison Park tonight, but only to watch from the stands.

In their current guise, the Toffees have been letting goals in left, right & centre. They lost 4-1 at Southampton on Sunday, 1-5 at Home v Atalanta last week, drew 2-2 at Crystal Palace the weekend before and came from 0-2 down to beat Watford 3-2 before that.

Overall, 8 of Everton’s last 9 games in all comps have seen 3+ goals scored.

West Ham have a new manager, too...

David Moyes returns to his old club tonight having presided over a 2-0 defeat at Watford and a 1-1 draw v Leicester in his first fortnight as West Ham boss. Like Allardyce, he has work to do.

For the season overall, the Head-2-Head comparison on our site shows Everton Home games are averaging 3.3 Total Goals and West Ham Away games are averaging 2.8.

Everton have kept just one Clean Sheet in 6 Premier League Home games this season (and that was on the opening day of the season). West Ham have kept just one Clean Sheet in 7 Away trips.

Change is on the cards for both these clubs but right now, with the way things are on the pitch, the Goals stats can’t be ignored...

Liverpool rollercoaster to continue...

Stoke v Liverpool

Premier League, Wed 8pm

• Liverpool’s last 4 Away games have seen 23 goals

Liverpool games are rarely boring under Jurgen Klopp, and while they’ve managed to keep Clean Sheets in 4 of their last 5 games at Anfield – it’s been a different story on the road...

The Reds are yet to keep an Away Clean Sheet in the league this season – 6 games and counting (only Everton have a worse record). And their 4 most recent Away games in all comps have seen Liverpool find the net 15 times and concede 8 goals.

Stoke have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their 6 Home games this season, and recently they’ve been involved in plenty of high-scoring games with Over 2.5 Goals paying out in 9 of their last 10.

Four of those 9 games have seen Stoke get on the score-sheet and lose – in other words, paying out on opponents in the Win & Both Teams to Score market...

That bet has paid out on Liverpool in their only 2 Away league wins this season, 4-1 at West Ham and 3-2 at Leicester.

Stoke have scored in 5 out of 6 league games at the Britannia Stadium, keeping just one Clean Sheet. Liverpool have found the net in 5 out of 6 Away games but not yet managed to stop their hosts from scoring.

Last season the Reds won 2-1 at Stoke, and beat the Potters 4-1 at Anfield.

Both Teams to Score is 4/6 (1.67) tonight and the Liverpool win is 1/2 (1.50). As a fictional double that would come out at odds of around 6/4 (2.50). We can get better than that in the Match Result & Both Teams to Score market today and that looks a good way to get a bit of value on a Liverpool win this evening...

• Note: to find this bet at 888 Sport and Unibet you need to go to the ‘Full Time’ section for the game, and select ‘Away Team to Win and Both Teams to Score’
   

I’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Picks & Analysis email, when we’ll have another round of Premier League games to look at as well as games in the Championship and Scottish Premiership.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues