Midweek Picks & Analysis - stick with Bayern on the Corners...  

Tuesday 31st October 2017

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Midweek Picks & Analysis...
• Stick with Bayern on the Corners...
• PSG to win big again...
• More to come tomorrow...

Welcome to your Midweek Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Champions League Match-day 4 – more net-bulging madness expected...

The floodlights will be getting plenty of use this week, with midweek games taking place in England and Europe...

There are no strong match-ups that catch my eye in tonight’s Championship fixtures, but the Champions League looks promising with two games in particular standing out today – see below.

So far this season, 73% of Champions League games have gone Over 2.5 Goals...

The bookies make several of this week’s Match-day 4 games short odds-on for Over 2.5 Goals. A handful of games are 1/2 (1.50) at best in that market and these three are all even shorter:

PSG v Anderlecht 1/6 (1.17)
Liverpool v Maribor 2/11 (1.18)
Borussia Dortmund v APOEL Nicosia 3/10 (1.30)

I’m using the stats to look elsewhere, with the Corner Handicap and Asian Handicap markets getting our attention today...

Stick with Bayern on the Corners...

Celtic v Bayern Munich

Champions League, Tue 7.45pm – BT Sport

• Bayern have won the Most Corners  in 55 of their last 61 Champions League games

Bayern Munich have only won 2 of their last 9 Champions League Away games, but they have won the Most Corners in 8 of those 9...

We’ve had two out of two winners on Bayern in the ‘corner winning’ markets so far this season, and I make no apologies for going with the Germans again this evening.

Bayern’s 90% Most Corners record in the Champions League is a stunning stat stretching back five seasons and counting.

Bayern are short odds-on at 4/11 (1.36) at best for the Most Corners today (William Hill, BetVictor). But the size of the Corner Handicap is what I’m interested in and a -2 Corner Handicap looks well within Bayern’s grasp...

The corners wins in Bayern’s 3 Champions League games this season have all been by very convincing scores: 12-3 (Home v Celtic), 1-18 (Away at PSG) and 13-1 (Home v Anderlecht).

To illustrate just how dominant Bayern have been: those 3 scores are all big enough to have covered a -8 Corner Handicap.

In last season’s competition, Bayern did enough to cover today’s -2 Corner Handicap in Away games at Arsenal (5-8), Rostov (3-7) and PSV Eindhoven (0-7).

And as we reported before Match-day 3 two weeks ago, Bayern have remained strong on the corner-winning front since returning manager Jupp Heynckes took over this month – landing -2 Corner Handicap bets in 4 of their last 5 games in all comps.

The Germans are without forwards Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski tonight, but it was winger Kinglsey Coman who terrorised Celtic in the reverse fixture a fortnight ago, and Coman has travelled to Glasgow with the Bayern squad.

Celtic have been out-cornered in each of their last 9 Champions League games (3 out of 3 this season). In last season’s competition, Barcelona (1-5) and Man City (4-9) both covered a -2 Corner Handicap when visiting Celtic Park.

Another way to drum home the corners stats here is to look at the totals in the competition so far:

Bayern have won 43 corner kicks in 3 games, conceding just 5. Those are the best Corners For and Against figures of all 32 teams in the Champions League. Celtic in comparison have won just 7 corner kicks in total, and conceded 19.

The Germans can boss the corners again here.

PSG to win big again...

PSG v Anderlecht

Champions League, Tue 7.45pm – BT Sport

• PSG are the tops scorers in the Champions League with 12 goals in 3 games

Group B was always going to be tough for Celtic and Anderlecht, with Bayern Munich and PSG massive favourites to qualify from day one.

PSG have been mighty impressive with stacks of goals – winning 5-0 at Celtic, 3-0 v Bayern and 4-0 at Anderlecht.

Anderlecht have been outclassed so far – losing 3-0 v Celtic and 3-0 v Bayern, as well as that 4-0 defeat at Home to PSG.

The Belgian side have yet to score a goal in the competition, while PSG have scored 12 and conceded zero.

PSG are extremely short odds-on to win the game, at just 1/14 (1.07) at best. Anderlecht are a staggering 55/1 (56.00) underdog.

In situations like this it can sometimes pay to use the Goals and Clean Sheet stats to find a better price about a victory for the dominant team...

‘To Win To Nil’ has paid out in 3 out of 3 PSG wins so far and also in all 3 of Anderlecht’s defeats; that option is 4/5 (1.80) with Paddy Power and BetVictor and 8/11 (1.73) in general.

But instead of having to rely on a Clean Sheet for PSG, I’d rather back the French stars to do the damage at the other end of the pitch...

PSG have scored 3+ goals in 5 of their last 6 Home games in all comps.

With the numbers suggesting another high-scoring PSG win could be on the cards, the Asian Handicap market looks the place to be.

The -3.0 Asian Handicap pays out if PSG win by 4 goals or more, with stakes returned if they win by exactly 3 goals.

That option has given 2 wins and one ‘money back’ from PSG’s 3 Champions League games so far. And only failed to deliver a win or return stakes in 2 of PSG’s last 10 victories in all comps.

More to come tomorrow...

The bookies don’t have all the Corners and Cards options up for Wednesday’s 8 Champions League games yet, so I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the stats and markets for those.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues