Weekend Picks & Analysis - All about Arsenal…

Friday 20th April 2018

In your Across the Leagues email today:

• Weekend Picks & Analysis...
• All about Arsenal…
• Crawley to make it 9 in a row...

Welcome to your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.

Every week I research the stats & fixtures, across the leagues. With the aim of identifying games with top-rated stats match-ups, bet opportunities and the best prices available with the bookies.

Rarely dull…

The stats aren’t a crystal ball and sometimes a game can go the opposite way to what the numbers & trends suggest. That was certainly the case midweek, with both of our featured games ending in 0-0 draws…

A goalless game is no good at all when you’ve backed Over 2.5 Goals (Rochdale 0 Oldham 0) or an Anytime Scorer (Jamie Vardy, Leicester 0 Southampton 0). That was Leicester’s first 0-0 at Home in all comps this season. Oldham have now drawn 4 games in a row.

Moving on to this weekend’s football…

We have a limited Premier League schedule due to the FA Cup semi finals at Wembley. Elsewhere it’s business as usual with a full set of games in the Championship, League One, League Two and the Scottish Premiership.

See below for my weekend picks.

And remember, as ever, your members-only Across the Leagues website is up-to-date with all the latest stats to help you with your own bet selections:

• League Stats tables, Team Stats and Head-to-Head comparisons for every game are available for you to log-in and view on your members-only website

• We have unique betting stats spanning 30+ markets, including Goals, Corners, Cards & Booking Points categories, for over 100 teams.

Log-in on your smart-phone, tablet, laptop or PC at:

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All about Arsenal…

Arsenal v West Ham

Premier League, Sun 1.30pm – Sky Sports

• 9 of Arsenal’s 13 Home Wins have been by more than one goal

The big football news today is Arsene Wenger’s announcement that he’ll be leaving Arsenal at the end of the season. After almost 22 years at the helm, things will be changing for the Gunners.

Whether or not that news has an impact on his team’s performance this weekend, the stats & formbook point to Arsenal in the Match Handicap market…

When the Gunners win, they tend to win well. Nine of their 13 Premier League Home Wins this season have been by more than one goal, paying out on the -1 Match Handicap.

That includes 4 of their last 5 league wins at the Emirates, with Arsenal winning 3-2, 3-0, 3-0, 5-1 and 4-1. That run accounts for 5 of their last 6 at Home in the Premier League, with the other a 0-3 defeat at the hands of champions Man City.

Looking at those scores, Over 2.5 Goals is a contender but we can do better than odds of 4/9 (1.44) for that outcome, and better than 4/7 (1.57) for the Home Win too…

Arsenal -1 Handicap is available at 7/5 (2.40) and 13/10 (2.30).

West Ham have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, with those scores 4-1, 4-1 and 3-1. And when the Hammers lose they tend to get, well, hammered…

For the season, 10 of West Ham’s 14 defeats have been by more than one goal.

Crawley to make it 9 in a row…

Exeter v Crawley

League Two, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score has paid out in each of Crawley’s last 8 games

Crawley are one of the form teams in the country for Both Teams to Score bets, with 8 payouts in a row in League Two…

Opponents Exeter are on a 6-game run themselves for this bet, making this fixture one of the strongest stats match-ups of the weekend.

The Head-2-Head on our site shows the Home/ Away Last 5 Games comparison ranks both teams at 80%, with 4 out of 5 payouts each.

It was 3-1 Crawley in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Exeter have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 8 games; Crawley none in their last 11.

The stats are clear here, and they point to goals at both ends.

I’ll be back on Monday with a Stats Review, taking stock of the latest results & trends. Then we’ll be straight into the Champions League semi final 1st Legs on Tuesday.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues