Picks & Analysis - including Killie on TV tonight...
Friday 1st February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Kilmarnock v Hearts…
- Hamilton v Dundee…
- Walsall v Rochdale…
Stats Picks for the weekend…
We were treading water in midweek with two out of four winning picks. On Wednesday evening Southampton 1 Crystal Palace 1 was one goal off Over 2.5 Goals. But Tottenham 2 Watford 1 kept up the strong Over 10.5 Corners stats, with a total of 14 corners. Watford have the best Away record in the Premier League for that bet (83%).
Weather permitting, we have a full weekend fixture list in the Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premiership…
- All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website
- Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats – including a live TV game in Scotland this evening…
Man City v Arsenal is the big Premier League game on Sky Sports on Sunday, and it’s a high match-up on the Over 2.5 Goals stats. City have a 92% Home record for that bet, with the Gunners 82% Away. Eight of the last 9 meetings between Man City & Arsenal in all comps have gone Over 2.5 Goals. However, the bookies are all over this one and expecting a goal-fest, with odds of just 4/11 (1.36) at best.
Elsewhere this weekend, there are better prices available to us for equally highly-rated match-ups…
Kilmarnock v Hearts
Scottish Premiership
Friday, 7.45pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Kilmarnock 7/5 (2.40), Draw 11/5 (3.20), Hearts 21/10 (3.10)
Kilmarnock are one of the three Scottish Premiership clubs with plastic pitches. Along with Hamilton and Livingston, they’ve been near the top of the ‘low corners’ rankings at Home all season.
At Rugby Park, Killie’s record is 91% for Under 10 Corners & Under 9.5 Corners payouts. That’s 10 out of 11 Home games with 9 or less Total Corners.
Hearts’ Away form matches up well in this category. Nine of their 11 road trips have produced 9 or less corners (82%).
Kilmarnock Home games are averaging 7.6 Total Corners. Hearts Away games are averaging 8.0. These two have met twice in the league already this season, once at each ground, and both games had exactly 8 corners (and just one goal).
- Under 10 Corners @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill, 4/6 (1.67) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet. Under 9.5 Corners @ 4/6 with Betway
Hamilton v Dundee
Scottish Premiership
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Hamilton 31/20 (2.55), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Dundee 15/8 (2.88)
Sticking with the Scottish synthetic pitches & the low corners stats, Hamilton are the No.1 side on our standings…
They have a 100% Home record for Under 10 Corners & Under 9.5 Corners bets, With 9 or less corner kicks in all 11 league games at the Core Physio stadium, and an average of 7.4 Total Corners per game (and just 2.6 Corners For).
Dundee don’t quote match those eye-catching low numbers, but this bet has paid out in 3 of their last 5 on the road – and Dundee are winning an average of less than 4 Corners For per Away game. Both previous meetings with Hamilton this season (one Home, one Away) have gone Under 10 Corners.
- Under 10 Corners @ 23/20 (2.15) with William Hill, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 4/5 (1.80) Skybet
Walsall v Rochdale
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Walsall 11/8 (2.38), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Rochdale 2/1 (3.00)
A strong Over 2.5 Goals match-up here…
Walsall are ranked joint-3rd in League One for Over 2.5 Goals, including 10 out of 14 payouts at Home (71%).
Rochdale are the No.1 team in the division for this bet, and their Away form leads the way with 12 out of 15 games producing 3+ Total Goals (80%).
The Head-2-Head comparison on our site shows the Last 5 Games Home v Away Over 2.5 Goals strike-rates here are 100% v 80%.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill, Marathonbet, 188Bet, 4/5 (1.80) in general
Weekend Stats Picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Kilmarnock v Hearts:
Hamilton v Dundee:
Walsall v Rochdale:
I’ll be back on Monday with a stats update – and a look at the Monday night game between West Ham and Liverpool.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
