Picks & Analysis - Premier League games tonight...
Wednesday 2nd January 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Newcastle v Man Utd...
- Bournemouth v Watford...
- West Ham v Brighton...
Trends building for 2019...
Let me start today’s email by wishing you a very Happy New Year.
The start of the year marks the start of the second half of the football season. With 20+ games played, there are many teams up & down the leagues with noteworthy and prolific stats...
Take League Two side Forest Green for example, who emerge from the festive period with their 100% Away record for Both Teams to Score bets firmly intact – now standing at 13 games out of 13.
Or in the Scottish Premiership, where Hamilton sign off for the January winter break with a 100% Home record for Under 10.5 Corners – with 10 games out of 10 on their plastic pitch producing 10 or less Total Corners.
We’ll be looking at more sides in and around ‘The 100% Club’ in the next couple of weeks.
On New Year’s Day a couple of recent stats trends continued for our picks – putting us just in front for our festive bet selections, with 10 out 16 winners. Everton won the Most Corners for the 5th time in their last 6 Premier League Home games (corners score 6-5 v Leicester, full time score: 0-1), and Doncaster thrashed Rochdale 5-0 to land Over 2.5 Goals for the 5th consecutive game. Rochdale and Doncaster stay 1st and 2nd respectively in our League One standings Over 2.5 Goals.
Picks & Analysis – Premier League tonight…
The ‘New Year’s Day’ round of Premier League fixtures continues tonight with 6 games, followed by Man City v Liverpool on Thursday.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Premier League
8pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Newcastle 5/1 (6.00), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Man Utd 4/6 (1.67)
Man Utd are top of the Premier League for Over 2.5 Goals payouts, with an 85% overall record – and a 90% stat on the road (9 out of 10 Away games).
Ole Gunnar Solskaer’s first 3 games in charge have seen lots of goals and no Clean Sheets, with Man Utd winning 5-1 (A), 3-1 (H) and 4-1 (H).
All 6 of Newcastle’s games against Top 6 teams this season have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including a 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford as well as Home defeats v Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Historically this has been an entertaining Premier League fixture with 3-3, 4-1 and 4-0 score-lines in recent years, along with that 3-2 in October.
The odds for Over 2.5 Goals are bigger than the price for Man Utd to win the match.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/25 (1.84) with Marathonbet, 5/6 (1.83) BetVictor, 188Bet, 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, Skybet, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet
Bournemouth v Watford
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Bournemouth 13/8 (2.63), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Watford 8/5 (2.60)
Both sides have won just 2 of their last 10 games, and the bookies make the Match Result prices neck and neck here.
The stats trend to follow tonight is for Over 10.5 Corners...
This is 4th v 3rd on our Premier League table Over 10.5 Corners. Watford’s record is particularly strong with 8 out of 9 Away games featuring 11+ Total Corners, and their road trips averaging 12.7 corners.
Over 10.5 Corners has paid out in each of Bournemouth’s last 5 Home games, and in 8 Watford Away games in a row.
The recent history reads well, too, with each of the last 4 meetings between these sides having 11+ corners, including a whopping 17 corners in the reverse fixture this season.
- Over 10.5 Corners @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, 3/4 (1.75) 888 Sport, Unibet, Sportingbet, 8/11 (1.73) Boylesports. Over 10 Corners @ 7/10 (1.70) with BetVictor, 20/29 (1.68) NetBet, 10Bet
West Ham v Brighton
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: West Ham 21/20 (2.05), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Brighton 3/1 (4.00)
We’ve had Corner Handicap winners on the last 3 West Ham Home games, v Cardiff (corners score 10-4), Crystal Palace (5-3) and Watford (10-4). Brighton match-up well for another bet...
The Hammers have won the Most Corners in each of their last 6 Home games, and 70% for the season at the London Stadium.
Brighton have won the Most Corners just 6 times in 20 games overall – with 3 out of 10 on the road (30%).
West Ham are 4/9 (1.44) at best for the Most Corners or Corners Match Bet tonight. The -2 Corner Handicap (to get 3+ corners more than Brighton) offers a better return, and has paid out in 5 of those last 6 West Ham Home games.
- West Ham -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with Skybet, Evens (2.00) William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power. West Ham -2.5 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365, Marathonbet
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Newcastle United v Manchester United:
Bournemouth v Watford:
- Over 10.5 Corners @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365
West Ham v Brighton:
- West Ham -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with Skybet
I’ll be back on Friday with a look at the stats & prices for the league fixtures taking place this weekend. It’s the FA Cup 3rd Round, but there are 10 games across Leagues One & Two.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
