Picks & Analysis - including Man City at 5.55pm...
Tuesday 2nd October 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Hoffenheim v Man City…
- Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk…
- Aston Villa v Preston…
- Sunderland v Peterborough…
Champions League – Match-day Two…
The Champions League Group Stage continues this week with 8 games tonight and 8 more on Wednesday…
Two of this evening’s European games stand out for a stats bet, including Man City in the early 5.55pm kick off in Germany.
There’s also midweek football in the Football League, with two particularly strong match-ups for us tonight.
Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Hoffenheim v Man City
Champions League
Tonight, 5.55pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Hoffenheim 15/2 (8.50), Draw 9/2 (5.50), Man City 4/11 (1.36)
Man City lost to Lyon on Match-day One and are short odds-on to get their campaign up & running with an Away Win here. The Corners stats give us a much better price…
As I mentioned in Monday’s Stats Review email, City have a 100% record in the Premier League for -3 Corner Handicap bets, giving 7 payouts from their first 7 games of the season.
That trend also extends to cup football, including a 7-1 corners win in that Lyon game, making it 9 straight games overall for City on the -3 Corner Handicap (winning 4+ corners more than opponents each time).
Hoffenheim have won the Most Corners in just one of their 3 Home games in the Bundesliga so far.
- Man City -3 Corner Handicap @ 13/10 (2.30) with William Hill, 6/5 (2.20) NetBet, 10Bet, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/10 (2.10) Skybet, Bet365
Also available: Man City -3.5 Corner Handicap @ 119/100 (2.19) with Marathonbet.
Bet Now – latest odds here
Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Lyon 19/20 (1.95), Draw 14/5 (3.80), Shakhtar 3/1 (4.00)
After a 2-2 draw with Hoffenheim on Match-day One, Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Shakhtar’s 9 Champions League games since the start of last season. They’re on my hit-list for ‘high goals’ games and this game first the bill…
Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 4 of Lyon’s last 5 in all comps, including a 2-1 win at Man City.
This could be an entertaining game…
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (1.67) with Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Boylesports, 13/20 (1.65) BetVictor, Betway, 888 Sport, Unibet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Aston Villa v Preston
Championship
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Villa 4/5 (1.80), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Preston 4/1 (5.00)
Villa are odds-on favourites to beat bottom club Preston, but both of these sides have kept just one Clean Sheet each from 10 games so far – and that’s a key stat…
Villa are joint-top of our Championship Both Teams to Score table with a 90% record (9 games out of 10).
The scores in Preston’s last 3 games in all comps have been 2-3, 2-2, 3-2, so as you can see there are plenty of goals going in at both ends of late. Both Teams to Score has paid out in 4 of Preston’s last 5 in the league.
This is a strong match-up at a decent price.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betfred, Sportingbet, 9/10 (1.90) Betfair Sportsbook, 17/20 (1.85) in general
Bet Now – latest odds here
Sunderland v Peterborough
League One
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Sunderland Evens (2.00), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Peterborough 14/5 (3.80)
These sides are two of the promotion favourites in League One, currently sitting 4th and 2nd in the table respectively. They’re also flying high at the top of our Both Teams to Score rankings…
Sunderland and Peterborough are joint-top in League One for Both Teams to Score bets, with 9 out of 10 payouts each so far.
This has paid out in 7 Sunderland games in a row and in each of Peterborough’s last 6.
The odds make goals at both ends around a 62% chance tonight. But the stats match-up pitches two 90% records against each other.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with Betfred, William Hill, Bet365, 3/5 (1.60) Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
Bet Now – latest odds here
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Hoffenheim v Man City:
- Man City -3 Corner Handicap @ 13/10 (2.30) with William Hill
Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk:
Aston Villa v Preston:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betfred
Sunderland v Peterborough:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with Betfred
I’ll be back tomorrow with Picks & Analysis covering Wednesday’s Champions League and Championship games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
