Picks & Analysis - 2 bets for tonight...
Wednesday 3rd October 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Porto v Galatasaray...
- Sheffield Wednesday v West Brom...
Champions League – Match-day Two continues…
After last season’s record-breaking amount of Champions League goals, the entertainment continued yesterday with another batch of high-scoring games...
Eye-catching Tuesday night score-lines included Roma 5 Viktoria Plzen 0, AEK Athens 2 Benfica 3 and Lyon 2 Shakhtar Donetsk 2. That Lyon-Shakhtar game was a winning Over 2.5 Goals pick for us.
Man City’s 2-1 win at Hoffenheim landed the Man City -3 Corner Handicap (corners score = 1-8). City have now landed that bet in 10 games in a row in all comps.
The Goals theme continued in the Football League...
Aston Villa 3 Preston 3 grabbed headlines after a cabbage was thrown from the stands at Villa boss Steve Bruce (yes, a cabbage). But it’s Villa’s Championship Both Teams to Score trend that’s of interest to us, and it continues to grow. Last night’s payout makes it 10 out of 11 for the season (91%).
In League One, Sunderland and Peterborough played out a 2-2 draw to land our Both Teams to Score pick there, too. Sunderland and Peterborough stay top of the League One standings on our site for that bet with matching 91% strike-rates.
On to tonight’s football now and there are 8 more games in the Champions League, and 5 in the Championship...
The bookies are expecting more goals in Europe this evening. PSG v Red Star Belgrade, for example, is just 3/10 (1.30) at best to go Over 2.5 Goals. There are better opportunities for us elsewhere in the stats...
Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Porto v Galatasaray
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Porto 8/15 (1.53), Draw 7/2 (4.50), Galatasaray 6/1 (7.00)
Porto are Home Win favourites in the Match Result betting, but it’s the Cards & Booking Points stats that stand out for me...
Porto have a solid 70% Over 3.5 Cards record on our Champions League Historical Stats going back six seasons.
Galatasaray are no strangers to a high cards game. They had a man sent off on Match-day One, in a game that finished with a Total Cards score of 8 (Booking Points = 85 pts).
Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Galatasaray’s last 5 games in all comps.
The Over 4.5 Cards line is common in the Champions League. Five of last night’s 8 games went ‘Over’ that line.
Tonight’s Referee is England’s Michael Oliver. He took no prisoners in the Champions League last season, with Over 4.5 Cards shown in 4 of his 5 games, including 2 Red Cards.
Boylesports are betting Over 55 Booking Points for this game but we can get Over 40/ Over 4.5 Cards elsewhere...
- Over 4.5 Cards @ 11/10 (2.10) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 19/20 (1.95) Bet365 (Asian Total Cards), 20/23 (1.87) NetBet, 10Bet
Also available: Over 40 Booking Points @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50+ Booking Points @ Evens (2.00) with Skybet.
Bet Now – latest odds here
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 188Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Sheffield Wednesday v West Brom
Championship
Tonight, 7.45pm – Sky Sports (Interactive)
Match odds: Sheff Wed 14/5 (3.80), Draw 11/4 (3.75), West Brom Evens (2.00)
Third place West Brom are favourites for the Away Win, but Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten at Home. The stats mark this game out as a strong Both Teams to Score match-up...
As with last night’s Sunderland-Peterborough game, these two are at the top of their division for Both Teams to Score:
Sheff Wed have given 9 payouts from 10 Championship games so far, including 5 out of 5 at Hillsborough. Wednesday are yet to keep a league Clean Sheet this season.
West Brom are just behind them with an 80% record, including goals at both ends in 4 of their 5 Away games. The Baggies have kept just one Clean Sheet in 10 games.
This bet has paid out in 7 Sheff Wed games in a row. West Brom are a strongly-rated opponent to provide another payout this evening.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power, Bet365, Sportingbet, 3/5 (1.60) Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, Boylesports, Marathonbet, NetBet, 10Bet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Porto v Galatasaray:
Sheffield Wednesday v West Brom:
I’ll be back tomorrow with a stats update, then on Friday with your Picks & Analysis for the weekend.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
