Picks & Analysis for the weekend...
Friday 4th January 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Macclesfield v Swindon...
- Colchester v Notts County...
Cup ties...
There were some low Total Corners scores in the midweek Premier League games, including our pick in the 3-3 draw between Bournemouth and Watford, which bucked the Over 10.5 Corners form with a total of just 6 corner kicks.
Six of the 7 games played over Wednesday & Thursday went Under that Total Corners line, with just 3 corners in the Man City-Liverpool game and the same low total between Newcastle & Man Utd. Man Utd got 2 goals, but fell one short of maintaining their Over 2.5 Goals streak.
West Ham also had a surprising ‘low corners’ result, winning just one corner kick (1-5) in their 2-2 draw with Brighton – bringing to a halt a run of 6 straight Home Most Corners wins for the Hammers.
The first weekend of the year is reserved for the FA Cup 3rd Round. The top two divisions enter the competition at this stage. With no Premier League or Championship games taking place – and the majority of League One & League Two sides in cup action, too – we have limited lower-league fixture list to work with this weekend...
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
There are 10 games in total, three in League One and seven in League Two.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on the top match-ups on the stats…
Macclesfield v Swindon
League Two
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Macclesfield 2/1 (3.00), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Swindon 6/4 (2.50)
Macclesfield are finally off the bottom of the league, and have tightened things up a bit with 4 Clean Sheets in their last 8 games. Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of their last 9, and in 5 out of 7 in all competitions since Sol Campbell took charge.
This is a strong Under 2.5 Goals match-up on the Last 5 Home v Away stats, with 4 payouts in the last 5 Macclesfield Home games – and the same 4 out of 5 record for Swindon on the road.
Under 2.5 Goals has paid out in each of Swindon’s last 4 games, including two goalless draws over Christmas.
Macclesfield’s last 4 score-lines at the Moss Rose Ground have been: 1-1, 0-0, 2-0 and 1-0.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 43/50 (1.86) with Marathonbet, 4/5 (1.80) Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, 888 Sport, Betfred, Boylesports
Colchester v Notts County
League Two
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Colchester 7/10 (1.70), Draw 27/10 (3.70), Notts County 9/2 (5.50)
Bottom club Notts County are outsiders, and have won just one of their last 10 games in League Two. However, Colchester have only won one of their last 5 – and the stats make backing them in the Corners market a higher-rated option than the Home Win...
Colchester have won the Most Corners in 85% of Home games (11 out of 13), and are ranked 2nd in the division for that bet. In comparison, County have won the Most Corners in just 2 of 13 Away games (15%), and in just one of that last 5 road trips.
Colchester have got the Most Corners in 5 consecutive Home games, stretching to 8 of their last 9 at the Community Stadium. In 6 of those 8 corners wins, they have covered a -3 Corner Handicap (winning 4+ corners more than opponents).
Colchester are short odds-on favourites for the Most Corners, 3/10 (1.30) at best with William Hill. That stats say they can be backed to beat the -3 Corner Handicap for a better return – with Colchester averaging 5.8 Corners per game more than opponents in their last 5 Home games.
Weekend picks…
In summary, here this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Macclesfield v Swindon:
Colchester v Notts County:
- Colchester -3 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10) with William Hill
I’ll be back on Monday with a weekend Stats Review, a round-up of some of the top trends for the season so far – and a look ahead at next week’s fixture list.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
