Across the Leagues Extra

FA Cup 3rd Round Shock Finder...

Friday 4th January 2019

In your Across the Leagues EXTRA email today:

  • Stats for the Weekend...
  • FA Cup 3rd Round...
  • Searching for surprises...

Stats for the Weekend...

Our ‘Stats for the Weekend’ have been prolific recently, including 11 of 13 highlighted top trends going to form in December.

Over the Christmas period, the Under 10.5 Corners stats we looked at in Scotland produced 3 out of 4 payouts. When the Scottish Premiership returns after the short winter break, Hamilton, Kilmarnock and Livingston – and their plastic pitches – will all remain firmly on our radar for Under 10.5 Corners bets.

This weekend we’re looking at something a bit different, with the FA Cup 3rd Round taking centre stage...

Searching for surprises...

With a busy fixture list and the likes of Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd competing in Europe as well as the league and cups, the FA Cup 3rd Round could see a few rested players on the team-sheets...

Wintry playing conditions and unwelcoming lower-league grounds could all play a part too, with Cup romantics looking to sniff out a shock or two.

Here are the 3rd Round Match Result figures from the last three seasons. On average there have been 5 ‘shocks’ each year at this stage – with a shock defined here as a Premier League side failing to win...

2017/18:
14 Home Wins (44%)
8 Draws (25%)
10 Away Wins (31%)
Shocks: Nottingham Forest 4 Arsenal 2, Coventry 2 Stoke 1, Fleetwood 0 Leicester 0, Norwich 0 Chelsea 0, Bournemouth 2 Wigan 2

2016/17:
13 Home Wins (41%)
9 Draws (28%)
10 Away Wins (31%)
Shocks: Millwall 3 Bournemouth 0, Stoke 0 Wolves 2, West Brom 1 Derby County 2, Liverpool 0 Plymouth 0, Bolton 0 Crystal Palace 0, Norwich 2 Southampton 2

2015/16:
13 Home Wins (41%)
11 Draws (34%)
8 Away Wins (25%)

Shocks: Oxford 3 Swansea 2, Exeter 2 Liverpool 2, West Brom 2 Bristol City 2, Wycombe 1 Aston Villa 1

Combined, those last-three-seasons figures add up to:

Home Wins 42%
Draws 29%
Away Wins 29%
Average of 5 shocks in the 3rd Round (win or draw)

Looking at this weekend’s FA Cup fixture list, here are three ties that catch the eye as potential upsets...

  • Chelsea v Nottingham Forest – a first taste of the FA Cup for Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri. The Blues are the Cup holders... last season Forest knocked out the holders Arsenal. Forest are 14/1 and the draw is 5/1
  • Bristol City v Huddersfield – Huddersfield have lost 8 in a row and are in Premier League relegation trouble. Bristol are 13/10 (2.30) and it’s 12/5 (3.40) to go to a replay
  • Gillingham v Cardiff – Cardiff are also in a relegation scrap, with big league games coming up next against fellow strugglers Huddersfield and Newcastle. Gillingham are 7/2 (4.50), and the draw is 14/5 (3.80)

I’ll be back next week with stats & Premier League predictions for you.

Enjoy the football...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra

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