Picks & Analysis - West Ham v Liverpool tonight...
Monday 4th February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Stats Review…
- Picks & Analysis…
- West Ham v Liverpool…
Weekend Stats Review…
We were two from three with our weekend Stats Picks.
In League One, Rochdale’s 2-1 win at Walsall keeps them in 1st place on our Over 2.5 Goals standings.
In the Scottish Premiership, Kilmarnock 1 Hearts 2 saw a paltry 4 corners, paying out on Under 10 Corners for the 11th time in 12 Kilmarnock Home games this season (92%). Hamilton’s 100% Under 10 Corners record went though, with a total of 13 in their 1-1 draw v Dundee.
Elsewhere, in the big Premier League game, Man City 3 Arsenal 1 franked the bookies’ decision to price Over 2.5 Goals short at just 4/11 (1.36). Nine of the last 10 meetings between City & the Gunners have now gone Over 2.5 Goals.
And in the Championship, promotion-chasing Sheffield United are now top for Most Corners payouts (77%) after posting an emphatic 13-3 corners score in their 2-0 win over struggling Bolton.
Let’s take a look at the stats & prices for the Monday Night Football on Sky Sports…
West Ham v Liverpool
Premier League
Monday, 8pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: West Ham 8/1 (9.00), Draw 9/2 (5.50), Liverpool 4/11 (1.36)
Liverpool are short odds-on to get the Away Win and restore a 5-point lead in the title race. West Ham have beaten Arsenal and Man Utd and drawn with Chelsea at the London Stadium this season, so it won’t be easy.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced as a strong 8/15 (1.53) favourite, although our standings for that bet only have West Ham ranked 15th of 20 Premier League teams and Liverpool 13th. Recent history is playing a part there though, with each of their last 5 meetings going both Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Goals.
For a better price and a stronger stats trends, look to the Cards & Booking Points…
Under 3.5 Cards (or Under 40 Booking Points) bets have paid out in each of the last 8 meetings between West Ham & Liverpool.
This season, Liverpool are No.1 in the Premier League for that bet with a 71% overall record, and 75% Away (9 out of 12 Away games). Jurgen Klopp’s team have received the fewest Yellow Cards overall (22, which is 9 less than the nearest team).
Under 3.5 Cards has paid out in 9 of the Reds’ last 10 road trips, including Zero Total Cards at Brighton and Wolves in 2 of the last 3.
West Ham have the joint-best Home record for Under 3.5 Cards, with 9 out of 12 payouts (75%). That includes 5 of the last 6 games at the London Stadium.
The Hammers have hosted all of the other ‘Big Six’ sides already, and all 5 of those games have gone Under 3.5 Cards. Including No Cards for West Ham players v Arsenal, Man City and Man Utd.
The Head-2-Head on our website shows West Ham Home games are averaging 3.1 Total Cards, with Liverpool Away games averaging 2.4.
- Under 3.5 Cards @ 4/5 (1.80) with Betway, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet
Total Cards or Total Bookings markets also available with: Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, William Hill, Marathonbet.
Stats Pick for tonight…
In summary, here is today’s pick at the best price:
West Ham v Liverpool:
- Under 3.5 Cards @ 4/5 (1.80) with Betway
P.S
I’ve mentioned my colleague Shaun Humphris a few times recently. Shaun works alongside me on Across the Leagues and has done for some time. It’s high time he was acknowledged in these emails! You’ll see Shaun’s name in your emails from us from now on.
The midweek football includes FA Cup 4th Round replays, and Scottish Premiership games on Wednesday night. We’ll be back on Friday with your Weekend Picks & Analysis email.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
