Picks & Analysis - 3 Premier League picks for tonight...
Tuesday 4th December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Midweek Premier League programme…
- Six more games tomorrow…
Picks & Analysis – midweek Premier League games…
In last night’s Championship game, West Brom v Brentford went to form in terms of Both Teams to Score (1-1). They had stacks of chances in front of goal, but the Baggies fell short of landing the Win & Both Teams to Score price for our pick. Brentford had a rare failure in the Most Corners department, out-gunned 7-3.
The December schedule picks up pace this evening with 4 games in the start of a full midweek Premier League programme. There’s even a bonus Match of the Day on tomorrow night. Lots of football to look forward to…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities…
Watford v Man City
Premier League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Watford 10/1 (11.00), Draw 5/1 (6.00), Man City 3/10 (1.30)
Leaders Man City are short odds-on to win a 7th consecutive league game, and Over 2.5 Goals is just 1/2 (1.50) despite only paying out in 2 of City’s 6 Away games so far. The stats say the Man City -1 Match Handicap is the top-rated bet for a better price…
City have won 6 Premier League games in a row and the -1 Handicap has paid out in 5 of them, with score-lines of: 3-1, 0-4, 3-1, 6-1, 0-1, 5-0.
The champions have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their 9 last 9 wins in all comps, and in 10 of their 12 league victories this season (83%).
Vicarage Road has been a happy hunting ground the last couple of seasons with City thumping Watford 0-6 and 0-5 (along with 3-1 and 2-0 wins at the Etihad).
Watford have lost 2-0 at Leicester and 0-3 at Home v Liverpool in their last 2 games.
- Man City -1 Match Handicap @ 5/6 (1.83) with Betway, 4/5 (1.80) Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfred, Boylesports, Boylesports
Bournemouth v Huddersfield
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: Bournemouth 7/10 (1.70), Draw 14/5 (3.80), Huddersfield 9/2 (5.50)
Bournemouth have lost 4 in a row but are odds-on for the Home Win this evening, against are a Huddersfield side that are just one point above the relegation places.
The stats are clear about the strongest trend for Bournemouth games. Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 9 of their last 10 Premier League games, 5 of their 7 Home games and 79% overall – putting them joint-1st in the division for that bet.
Looking at the ‘in all competitions’ form, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 6 Bournemouth games in a row, and in 11 of their last 12.
Last season both Bournemouth v Huddersfield games sailed Over 2.5 Goals, 4-1 at Huddersfield and 4-0 on the south coast.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 19/20 (1.95) with Betfair Sportsbook, 188Bet, 10/11 (1.91) Betway, Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Marathonbet, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet
West Ham v Cardiff
Premier League
7.45pm
Match odds: West Ham 4/6 (1.67), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Cardiff 5/1 (6.00)
The Corners stats highlight a clear opportunity for the Home team here…
Cardiff haven’t won the Most Corners in any of their 6 games on the road. They have the lowest Away Total in the Premier League with just 20 corner kicks won on their travels so far – averaging just 3.3 Corner For per Away game.
West Ham are averaging 6.1 Corners For per Home game, and only a handful of teams can top the Total number of corners won at Home by the Hammers so far (43).
West Ham are just 4/11 (1.36) for the Most Corners tonight, but there’s more than enough in the numbers for them to beat the -2 Corner Handicap (winning 3+ corners more than Cardiff). They’ve covered that handicap in each of their last 3 games at the London Stadium.
A -2 Corner Handicap on the Home team has paid out in each of Cardiff’s last 3 Away games.
- West Ham -2 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill, 5/6 (1.83) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Also available: West Ham -2.5 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Marathonbet, 20/23 (1.87) NetBet, 10Bet.
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Watford v Man City:
- Man City -1 Match Handicap @ 5/6 (1.83) with Betway
Bournemouth v Huddersfield:
West Ham v Cardiff:
- West Ham -2 Corner Handicap @ 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the stats and opportunities in Wednesday’s Premier League games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
