Picks & Analysis - 3 Total Goals picks for this evening...
Tuesday 6th November 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Napoli v PSG…
- Tottenham v PSV…
- Notts County v Oldham…
Champions League – Match-day Four…
The Champions League Group stage is at the halfway point. Things are starting to heat up, as teams battle to get in the top two places to qualify for the Knockout phase.
There are 8 games this evening and 8 more on Wednesday. Along with a couple of games in the lower leagues, too…
Picks & Analysis…
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Napoli v PSG
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Napoli 7/4 (2.75), Draw 13/5 (3.60), PSG 6/4 (2.50)
Group C looks set to go the wire with Liverpool on 6 pts, Napoli on 5 pts and PSG on 4 pts. Liverpool are in Belgrade to take on bottom club Red Star in the early 5.55pm kick off. The pressure will be on Napoli and PSG to get maximum points tonight…
As we’ve noted several times in recent European weeks, Goals have been a strong theme in the Champions League. PSG are a strong contributor on that front. So far in this campaign the Paris side’s score-lines have been 2-2 (v Napoli), a 6-1 win over Red Star and a 3-2 defeat at Liverpool.
Those results add up to a run of 18 consecutive PSG Champions League games that have gone Over 2.5 Goals – a run stretching back over two years to September 2016. All 3 of this season’s games have seen 4+ Total Goals to land the higher Over 3.5 Goals line, and that bet has paid out in 14 of those last 18 Champions League outings.
PSG have played 16 games in all comps this season, and 12 of them have gone Over 3.5 Goals. With that 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture, and a 5-1 Home Win in Serie A at the weekend, Over 3.5 has paid out in 2 of Napoli’s last 3 games.
Over 2.5 Goals is a general 8/15 (1.53) shot. The stats say to take the bigger price for the higher line…
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 29/20 (2.45) with Betfair Sportsbook, 7/5 (2.40) BetVictor, 188Bet, 11/8 (2.38) Betfred, Boylesports
Tottenham v PSV
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Tottenham 4/11 (1.36), Draw 9/2 (5.50), PSV 7/1 (8.00)
This one could have an air of desperation about it – and another high goals tally…
Spurs and PSV are joint-bottom of Group B with 1 point apiece, trailing Barcelona (9 pts) and Inter Milan (6 pts) – but they’re not out of contention yet. The ‘must-win’ tag is out in force. The stats say Goals…
The reverse fixture a fortnight ago ended 2-2. Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 10 out of 11 Tottenham Champions League games since the start of last season. Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in 2 out of 3 in this campaign – that 2-2 at PSV, along with a 2-4 loss to Barcelona. After a 2-3 win at Wolves on Saturday night, there have been 4+ goals in 3 of Tottenham’s last 4 games in all comps.
PSV are no stranger to a ‘high goals’ game, either. Including the Qualifying round, there have been Over 2.5 Goals in all 5 of their Champions League fixtures so far. Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in 4 of PSV’s last 6 games in all comps.
The Over 2.5 Goals option is a clear favourite at 1/2 (1.50). It’s the same price for Harry Kane to score (landed Anytime Scorer bets in 6 out of 9 Champions League appearances). As with the Napoli-PSG game, the Group situation & the stats make a strong case for the Over 3.5 line…
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 5/4 (2.25) with Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 6/5 (2.20) in general
Notts County v Oldham
League Two
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Notts County 7/4 (2.75), Draw 12/4 (3.40), Oldham 13/8 (2.63)
A close set of Match Result prices here. Once again, the stats says Goals…
Notts County are the No.1 team in the division for Over 2.5 Goals bets with a total of 13 payouts from 16 games (81%). At Home, the Magpies have landed this bet 5 times in a row. And each of their last 4 games overall have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
Oldham had a couple of 0-0 draws a month ago, but since then 5 of their 7 games in all comps have had 3+ Total Goals. Including 3 consecutive Away Over 2.5 Goals results.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced up as the slight outsider of the two options in the Under/ Over market tonight. But County are a form team for this bet, top-ranked in League Two. The numbers suggest another high-scoring encounter is on the cards…
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365, BetVictor, 188Bet, Evens (2.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Napoli v PSG:
Tottenham v PSV:
Notts County v Oldham:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365
I’ll be back tomorrow with Picks & Analysis for Wednesday’s Champions League games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
