Picks & Analysis - 3 bets for the weekend...
Friday 7th September 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Barnsley v Walsall…
- Scunthorpe v Rochdale…
- Exeter v Notts County…
Proper football…
I’ve got a friend who goes to every Northampton Town match. He almost seems glad that they’ve dropped down to League Two this season…
‘Proper football,’ he calls it. Saturday 3pm kick offs, none of this dinnertime nonsense… tackles that show it’s still a contact sport… and grounds where you still get muddy six yard boxes. You get the picture.
Well, this weekend the International break means we get to focus fully on the lower divisions. Leagues One & Two, here we come…
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
All the latest League and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Barnsley v Walsall
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Barnsley 4/9 (1.44), Draw 7/2 (4.50), Walsall 7/1 (8.00)
Barnsley are odds-on favourites for the Home Win but these two are level on 14 points after 6 games, and the stats make the strongest case for a Corners bet…
Barnsley have come flying out the blocks in the corner-winning department this season, winning the Most Corners by 3+ corners in all 6 of their games. That 100% record includes thumping 9-3 (H) and 11-0 (A) corners wins in their last 2 league games.
The League One Totals page on our site shows Barnsley have won more corner kicks in total in the division so far (46 in 6 games = 7.67 average per game).
Walsall were out-cornered 8-0 at Rochdale on their last Away trip, and 5-2 at AFC Wimbledon before that. Walsall ended last season ranked 2nd-bottom of our League One table for Most Corners bets (30%).
The Home team are just 2/9 (1.22) for the Most Corners here. The -3 or -3.5 Corner Handicap is available with a couple of bookies and that’s the more desirable option, with Barnsley well capable of beating the 4+ corners margin needed to land this one.
- Barnsley -3 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill. Barnsley -3.5 Asian Handicap Corners @ 17/20 (1.85) with Bet365, 4/5 (1.80) NetBet, 10Bet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Scunthorpe v Rochdale
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Scunthorpe 9/5 (2.80), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Rochdale 6/4 (2.50)
These two are both in the bottom half of the table after 6 games. Scunthorpe are yet to win at Home, and with all 7 of Rochdale’s points having come on the road the bookies make the Away Win the slight favourite in the Match Result betting.
The stats say there will be goals…
Rochdale are the early leaders in our 2018/19 League One table for Over 2.5 Goals bets, with 5 payouts from 6 games.
Scunthorpe are 4 from 6 for that bet including a couple of heavy defeats, 0-5 at Home and 3-0 Away.
These sides have been in the same division for some time and the recent history shows there’s usually goals – both teams have found the net in each of the last 8 meetings.
This one is priced up as 50-50 but the stats say Over 2.5 Goals is the pick.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betfred, 188Bet, 9/10 (1.90) Marathonbet, 17/20 (1.85) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway
Bet Now - latest odds here
Exeter v Notts County
League Two
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Exeter 6/5 (2.20), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Notts County 12/5 (3.40)
This will be Harry Kewell’s first league game in charge of Notts County. His first game was a 2-1 defeat at Grimsby in the EFL Trophy in midweek.
County have lost 5 in a row and are bottom of League Two. All 5 of those games saw Over 2.5 Goals. They found the net at least once in 4 of those 5 defeats.
‘High goals’ is a trait Kewell was known for at fellow League Two side Crawley, with a gung-ho approach from the former attacker. As it stands, Notts County are currently the only team in League Two to have provided more Over 2.5 Goals payouts than Crawley so far this season.
Exeter’s Home stats match-up pretty well here with no Clean Sheets from 3 games as of yet, and 2 out of 3 payouts for Over 2.5 Goals.
Again the Total Goals prices are 50-50 here. But the stats point clearly to the ‘Over’ option.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betfred, Marathonbet, 188Bet, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, 17/20 (1.85) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill
Bet Now – latest odds here
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Barnsley v Walsall:
- Barnsley -3 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) with William Hill
Scunthorpe v Rochdale:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betfred
Exeter v Notts County:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betfred
I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the stats, and a look ahead to next week’s games.
P.S
I’ll also be in your inbox this afternoon with Across the Leagues EXTRA, with some standout stats for the England game…
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
