Picks & Analysis - Champions League stats for tonight...
Wednesday 7th November 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis – Champions League…
- CSKA Moscow v Roma, 5.55pm...
- Bayern Munich v AEK Athens, 8pm...
- Benfica v Ajax, 8pm...
Champions League stats for tonight...
Last night saw one of the biggest Champions League shocks in recent history. Red Star Belgrade beat last season’s finalists Liverpool, 2-0. Red Star were 14/1 rank outsiders for the Home Win.
We weren’t on the receiving end of anything as dramatic as that, but the Goals stats misfired somewhat. Both teams found the net in both the Tottenham-PSV (2-1) and Napoli-Barcelona (1-1) games – but the score-lines came up short for our Over 3.5 Goals picks. In League Two, Notts County’s 5-game Home Over 2.5 Goals run came to a juddering halt with a 0-0 draw v Oldham.
There are some strong ‘high goals’ trends on show again for tonight’s Champions League games – although the prices are nothing to write home about...
In Group F, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in all 6 games so far. Over 2.5 Goals in Man City v Shakhtar Donetsk is a short favourite at just 1/3 (1.33), with Lyon v Hoffenheim not much bigger at 2/5 (1.40).
In Group G, all 3 Viktoria Plzen games have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Visitors Real Madrid have given Over 2.5 Goals payouts in 12 of their last 13 Champions League games. That option is 1/2 (1.50).
If you don’t mind a short-price combo, the Over 2.5 Goals treble on those three games pays 7/4+ (2.75+).
The stats & markets lead me to three individual selections elsewhere...
Picks & Analysis…
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
CSKA Moscow v Roma
Champions League
Tonight, 5.55pm – BT Sport
Match odds: CSKA 3/1 (4.00), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Roma 11/10 (2.10)
An Anytime Scorer selection catches the eye in the early kick off...
Roma striker Edin Dzeko has been prolific in the competition this year, landing this bet in 7 of his 8 Champions League appearances since March. That includes 5 goals in 3 games this season, with a brace in Roma’s 3-0 win over CSKA Moscow last time out.
CSKA have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 33 Champions League games – the worst record of any long-term (five seasons+) Champions League side. That stat suggests the Russians’ recent 1-0 win over holders Real Madrid was something of an anomaly.
- Anytime Scorer – Edin Dzeko @ 7/5 (2.40) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 13/10 (2.30) Betway, 5/4 (2.25) Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor
Bayern Munich v AEK Athens
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Bayern 1/10 (1.10), Draw 11/1 (12.00), AEK 33/1 (34.00)
That 14/1 Red Star win was a big shock. But those odds pale in comparison to 33/1 for AEK Athens to spring a surprise in Munich tonight. 888 Sport & Unibet are even going 40/1. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Match Result price that big in the Champions League.
It’s true that Bayern Munich haven’t been firing on all cylinders under new manager Niko Kovac (the reigning Bundesliga champs currently sit 3rd in their domestic league). But after back-to-back league defeats, Bayern have bounced back with 2 wins and a draw from their last 3 games.
The German giants haven’t been banging in the goals in the way we’re used to seeing them do, but their Corners stats remain as dominant as ever...
For most teams, a -6 Corner Handicap would be filed under ‘too big.’ But Bayern have actually landed this bet in 7 of their last 10 games in all comps, including their last 2 European games. In their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture in Athens two weeks ago, the corners score was 10-1 to Bayern. They also won 7+ corners more than Ajax, in a 1-1 draw in Germany.
Athens have been out-cornered by a couple of hefty scores – 1-10 in that Bayern game, and also 13-3 in a 3-0 defeat at Ajax.
Bayern are our top-rated Most Corners side in the competition going back six seasons – bossing that stat in a scary 35 of their last 36 Champions League Home games (97%).
- Bayern -6 Corner Handicap @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor, Evens (2.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 19/20 (1.95) 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365. Bayern -6.5 Corner Handicap @ 93/100 (1.93) with Marathonbet
Benfica v Ajax
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Benfica 6/4 (2.50), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Ajax 19/10 (2.90)
With 3 games to go, Benfica are 4 points behind Ajax and Bayern in Group E. That makes tonight’s game a big one for the home team – and there could be fireworks...
Benfica are a long-established ‘high Cards’ team in our Historical Champions League Stats, and Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 of their last 9 games in the competition. Not to mention 10 of their last 11 Home games in the Portuguese league going back to February.
There have been 50+ Booking Points or Over 4.5 Cards in all 3 Ajax games so far, including 7 Yellow Cards (70 pts) in the reverse fixture two weeks ago.
- 50+ Booking Points @ 8/11 (1.73) with Skybet. Over 45 Booking Points @ 8/13 (1.62) with William Hill. Over 4.5 Cards @ 8/13 (1.62) with 888 Sport, Unibet
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
CSKA Moscow v Roma:
- Anytime Scorer – Edin Dzeko @ 7/5 (2.40) with 888 Sport
Bayern Munich v AEK Athens:
- Bayern -6 Corner Handicap @ 23/20 (2.15) with BetVictor
Benfica v Ajax:
- 50+ Booking Points @ 8/11 (1.73) with Skybet
I’ll be back on Friday morning with your weekend Picks & Analysis.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
