Picks & Analysis - including Villa v Sheff Utd tonight...
Friday 8th February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Aston Villa v Sheffield United…
- Watford v Everton…
- Man City v Chelsea…
Stats Picks for the weekend…
The stats gave us a winner in the Monday Night Football. Liverpool could only manage a 1-1 draw at West Ham, but the Reds stay top of the league when it comes to Under 3.5 Cards bets…
There were 2 Yellow Cards at the London Stadium (20 Booking Points). Under 3.5 Cards bets have now paid out in 77% of West Ham Home games, and 77% of Liverpool Away games.
It’s cup weekend in Scotland, but there’s a full Premier League & Football League schedule in England. And on Tuesday we have the return of the Champions League, along with midweek league action.
Here’s our take on the top match-ups on the stats this weekend – starting with tonight’s live TV game…
Aston Villa v Sheffield United
Championship
Friday, 7.45pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Villa 15/8 (2.88), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Sheff Utd 6/4 (2.50)
This is a big game in the Championship with playoff-chasing Villa taking on a Sheff Utd side who are in the hunt for automatic promotion.
The standout stats for this one are in the Goals category…
Villa’s Tammy Abraham and Sheff Utd’s Billy Sharp are the top two players in the Championship Top Goalscorer table, with 19 goals apiece. Unsurprisingly, Abraham & Sharp are the top two in the Anytime Scorer and First Scorer betting tonight.
Villa are the No.1 team in the division for Over 2.5 Goals. They’re on an eye-catching 7-game streak for that bet at Villa Park with score-lines of: 2-1, 2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-2, 5-5, 4-2.
Sheff Utd are joint-3rd for Over 2.5 Goals payouts, and have scored 2+ Goals For in 5 of their last 7 Away games.
Watford v Everton
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Watford 11/8 (2.38), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Everton 23/10 (3.30)
Watford are 8th in the Premier League table and Everton are just a point behind, in 9th. A close set of Match Result prices, then. And the stats says goals at both ends…
Watford have a 75% Home record for Over 2.5 Goals, and Everton are ranked 4th in the division for Both Teams to Score.
Both Teams to Score has paid out in 4 of Watford’s last 5 at Vicarage Road, and 3 of Everton’s last 5 on the road.
Watford have kept just 3 Clean Sheets in 12 Home league games this season. Everton have managed just 2 Clean Sheets from 12 Away trips.
The score was 2-2 in the reverse fixture in December, and in the last couple of seasons these sides have produced two 3-2 score-lines, too.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 7/10 (1.70) with Bet365, William Hill, Marathonbet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway
Man City v Chelsea
Premier League
Sunday, 4pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Man City 1/2 (1.50), Draw 15/4 (4.75), Chelsea 6/1 (7.00)
Last week Man City beat Arsenal 3-1 and the Over 2.5 Goals price was 4/11 (1.36). There’s almost twice as much profit on offer from the Over 2.5 Goals bet this weekend, against another Top 6 side…
This is a strong match-up on the stats. Man City are the No.1 Premier League side at Home for Over 2.5 Goals bets, with a 92% record made up of 11 payouts from 12 games at the Etihad stadium.
That includes each of City’s last 9 Home league games seeing 3+ Total Goals, and 9 of their last 10 in the Premier League overall.
Chelsea have the 2nd-highest Away strike-rate in the division for this bet, with 9 of their 12 Away games going Over 2.5 Goals (75%). There have been 3+ goals in 5 of Chelsea’s last 6 games in all comps.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/20 (1.65) with Betfair Sportsbook, 188Bet, Marathonbet, 8/13 (1.62) in general
Weekend Stats Picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Aston Villa v Sheffield United:
Watford v Everton:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 7/10 (1.70) with Bet365
Man City v Chelsea:
We’ll be back on Tuesday with the standout stats and pick of the prices for the opening Champions League 1st Leg ties: Man Utd v PSG and Roma v Porto. As well as taking a look at the midweek Football League fixtures.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
