Picks & Analysis - 3 bets for the weekend...
Friday 12th October 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Rochdale v Doncaster Rovers...
- Scunthorpe v Peterborough...
- Coventry v Wycombe...
Behind closed doors...
England play Croatia tonight. As World Cup semi final rematches go, this one will be pretty low key...
The game takes place away from the Croatian national team’s usual venue. And behind closed doors as part of a UEFA punishment. There will be around 500 people in an otherwise empty stadium. Only team delegates, media, security and ground staff will be there to witness the game. The official attendance figure will be zero.
The game is live on Sky Sports. The atmosphere will be a bit odd. You might even hear a bit of swearing drifting up from the pitch.
The International break means no Premier League, Championship or Scottish Premiership action until next weekend.
We do however have 20 or so fixtures across League One & Two. The weekend programme kicks off with Tranmere v Macclesfield this evening. Sky Sports have got Barnsley v Luton on Saturday lunchtime.
Today my attention is drawn to three stats match-ups in League One...
Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Rochdale v Doncaster Rovers
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Rochdale 13/8 (2.63), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Doncaster 17/10 (2.70)
A very close set of Match Result prices here. Rochdale are the Home Win favourites but have won just one of 6 league games at Spotland. Doncaster are 8 points above them in the table, but have lost their last 2 games.
The Over 2.5 Goals stats & prices stand out in this one...
Rochdale are in joint-1st place in our League One standings for Over 2.5 Goals, with 10 payouts from 12 games including 5 out of 6 at Home (83%).
Doncaster have given Over 2.5 Goals payouts in 5 of their last 6 games. And with 6 Away games played, Rovers are yet to keep a Clean Sheet on the road.
This match-up also features two of the division’s top scorers. Rochdale’s Ian Henderson has scored over half of his team’s Home goals. Doncaster’s John Marquis is 2nd in the League One Top Scorer chart with 8 goals in 12 appearances.
The Total Goals market is just about 50-50, but the stats say Over 2.5 Goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 97/100 (1.97) with Marathonbet, 10/11 (1.91) Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred, NetBet, 10Bet
Scunthorpe v Peterborough
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Scunthorpe 6/4 (2.50), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Peterborough 13/8 (2.63)
Another close set of Match Result prices here. Scunthorpe have won their last 2 at Glanford Park and are priced up as marginal favourites for the Home Win. Peterborough are 2nd in League One but have only got one win in 5 games.
Again the Goals stats lead the way here...
Peterborough are joint-top with Rochdale for Over 2.5 Goals (83%). With that bet paying out in each of their last 6 games, including some big score-lines: 0-4 (L), 2-2, 2-2, 2-4 (W), 1-2 (L) and 2-3 (W).
Scunthorpe are joint-2nd in the division for Over 2.5 Goals (67%), including 4 of their last 5 at Home. They’ve also had a good few crazy scores, with high-scoring results since the start of September such as a 5-3 win, 3-3 draw, 3-2 win and a 3-2 defeat.
It was 2-2 when these sides last met in February, and there were also 3 goals in last season’s meeting at Spotland.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 31/50 (1.62) with Marathonbet, 4/7 (1.57) Bet365, Skybet, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway
Coventry v Wycombe
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Coventry 11/8 (2.38), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Wycombe 21/10 (3.10)
Just 3 points separate these two in the table. Wycombe have won just one of their last 7 games, and are priced as the slight outsiders here. However, Coventry have lost more Home games than they’ve won (W2 D1 L3).
The stats say goals at both ends...
Both Teams to Score has paid out in 3 of Coventry’s last 4 games. And in their last 6, only league leaders Portsmouth have stopped the Sky Blues from finding the net.
Wycombe are joint-3rd in our League One standings for Both Teams to Score, with goals at both ends in 75% of games (9 out of 12) – including 5 out of 6 Away (83%).
This bet has paid out in 9 of Wycombe’s last 10 games. Coventry have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 11 in all comps.
These two were promoted from League Two last season; the most recent meeting at the Ricoh ended 3-2 to Coventry.
The Yes/ No market is 50-50, but the formbook clearly points to Both Teams to Score.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365, Betfred, 9/10 (1.90) 888 Sport, Unibet, 17/20 (1.85) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betway
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Rochdale v Doncaster Rovers:
Scunthorpe v Peterborough:
Coventry v Wycombe:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365
I’ll be back on Monday with a weekend Stats Review, and a look ahead at next week’s fixture list.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
