Picks & Analysis - the Group of Goals...
Wednesday 12th December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis – Champions League tonight…
- Man City v Hoffenheim...
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon...
Picks & Analysis – the Group of Goals...
Liverpool got the 1-0 win they needed last night, beating Napoli to qualify from Group C in 2nd place. The corners tally ended in a draw though, at 3-3 – falling short of the -2 Corner Handicap.
Atletico Madrid covered their -1 Corner Handicap with room to spare, with an 8-2 score in their 0-0 draw at Club Brugge. That result sees Atletico through to the Knockout stages as the runner-up in Group A. The Spanish side have won the Most Corners in 6 out of 6 games so far in this season’s competition, landing the -1 Corner Handicap in 5 of them. They’ll stay on the stats radar when the Round of 16 kicks off in February.
The Group stage concludes with eight more games this evening...
There are quite a few ‘dead rubbers’ on tonight’s list, with qualification spots and 1st & 2nd place sorted in most Groups. But Group F still has plenty left to be decided – and that just so happens to have been the most entertaining Group so far in terms of goalmouth action...
Here’s how it stands:
Group F
Man City 10 pts
Lyon 7 pts
Shakhtar Donetsk 5 pts
Hoffenheim 3 pts
Man City are through but top spot is still to be confirmed. Lyon or Shakhtar will qualify alongside City. Hoffenheim can still finish 3rd to reach the Europa League.
Here are the Goals bet stats from Group F so far:
- 10 out of 10 games Over 2.5 Goals (100%)
- 8 out of 10 games Both Teams to Score (80%)
- 7 out of 10 games Over 3.5 Goals (70%)
And here are tonight’s games...
Man City v Hoffenheim
Champions League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Man City 2/7 (1.29), Draw 11/2 (6.50), Hoffenheim 10/1 (11.00)
City don’t need to win tonight but with Pep Guardiola having only 15 fit players to choose from it looks like he won’t be able to rest many of the big boys. And City games at the Etihad have been consistently high-scoring...
As well as the 100% Champions League record for Over 2.5 Goals, 7 out of 8 Premier League Home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals (88%). And 5 of Man City’s last 6 in all comps at the Etihad have had Over 3.5 Goals: 3-1, 3-1, 6-0, 6-1, 2-0, 5-0.
Hoffenheim have had outstanding high goals numbers all season. Both Teams to Score has paid out in remarkable 19 of 21 games in all comps (90%). Over 2.5 Goals is a similarly eye-catching figure, with 18 payouts (86%).
The higher Over 3.5 Goals option has paid out 13 times on Hoffenheim (62%) – including in 4 of their 5 Champions League games. The three most recent European score-lines being: 2-3, 2-2, 3-3.
The only Clean Sheet that Hoffenheim have kept all season in 21 games came at Home, against Bundesliga relegation contenders Stuttgart. City haven’t failed to score at the Etihad all season – and have drawn a blank in just one of their last 30 at Home.
Over 2.5 Goals is just 4/11 (1.36). The higher Over 3.5 line gets the nod here.
- Over 3.5 Goals @ 49/50 (1.98) with Marathonbet, 19/20 (1.95) Betfair Sportsbook, 23/25 (1.92) 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Paddy Power, Boylesports, Betway
Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon
Champions League
8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Shakhtar 13/10 (2.30), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Lyon 2/1 (3.00)
A draw puts Lyon through. Shakhtar need to win...
Yet more high-scoring numbers here. The reverse fixture in France ended in a 2-2 draw. And incidentally that Correct Score has paid out in 3 of Lyon’s last 6 games in all comps. Their last 4 Champions League games have finished: 2-2, 2-2, 3-3 and 2-2.
Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 100% of both sides’ Champions League games; Over 3.5 Goals has paid out in 4 out of 5 games each.
Since the start of last season, 6 out of 6 Shakhtar Champions League Home games have had 3+ Total Goals.
Four of Lyon’s last 5 Away trips in all comps have seen 4+ Total Goals.
Over 2.5 Goals is 8/15 (1.53). The numbers point to the higher line at the bigger price.
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Man City v Hoffenhiem:
Shakhtar Donetsk v Lyon:
I’ll be back on Friday with Picks & Analysis for the weekend.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
