Picks & Analysis - including Tottenham v Dortmund...
Wednesday 13th February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Tottenham v Borussia Dortmund...
- Leeds v Swansea...
- Preston v Norwich...
The youngster gets the goals...
When there’s a good young player around, it’s easy to get carried away. There are plenty of superlatives being thrown in the direction of Nicolo Zaniolo. The 19-year-old has already been described as a ‘teen sensation’ and ‘taking Italy by storm’ this season...
The Roma youngster opened his Champions League account with two goals last night. With the game at 0-0 until the 70th minute, Zaniolo’s quick-fire brace helped open the game up. Porto pulled one back in the 79th minute, ensuring our Over 2.5 Goals pick paid out. We also mentioned in passing that in the Anytime Scorer market, Zaniolo at 9/2 (5.50) was the best price of the three Roma strikers.
Over 2.5 Goals bets have now paid out in 6 of Roma’s 7 Champions League games this season. The 2nd Leg is looking a good proposition for another ‘high goals’ result.
The stats for our other pick on that game missed the mark (Roma -2 Corner Handicap), with the corners score 1-1.
Elsewhere, the Most Corners stats went to form for Millwall, edging the tally 5-4 in a 0-0 draw v Sheffield Wednesday in the Championship. Millwall have now won the Most Corners in each of their last 10 league games at The Den.
All told then, it was another two-out-of-three day for our Stats Picks.
The midweek football continues this evening with two more Champions League games, and seven fixtures in the Championship – see below for our Stats Picks.
Tonight’s teenager to watch is 18-year-old Vinicius Junior. The Brazilian youngster has been keeping Gareth Bale out of the Real Madrid starting line-up recently. Ajax v Real Madrid is on BT Sport at 8pm. The other big European game is at Wembley...
Tottenham v Borussia Dortmund
Champions League
Wednesday, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Tottenham 6/5 (2.20), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Dortmund 13/5 (3.60)
Tottenham have won 4 in a row in the Premier League and go off as Home Win favourites here. Dortmund are top of the German Bundesliga and have lost just one of their last 14 games in all competitions.
These clubs were drawn against each other in the Group stage last season. Goals were the theme then with Spurs winning 3-1 at Wembley and 2-1 in Germany – with all 5 Tottenham goals coming from Harry Kane & Heung-Min Son. Kane is out injured tonight but Son is in-form and is an 11/8 (2.38) favourite in the Anytime Scorer market.
Both Teams to Score is the Stats Pick here. That option has paid out in 10 of Tottenham’s last 12 Champions League games – including 5 out of 6 this season – and in 5 of their last 7 European nights at Wembley.
Spurs have a habit of making life hard for themselves in this competition. They’ve gone a goal down in 4 of their last 5 Champions League outings...
Dortmund are no stranger to a goals-at-both-ends performance. This bet has paid out in 7 of their last 8 games in all comps.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 4/6 (1.67) with William Hill, 8/13 (1.62) in general
Leeds v Swansea
Championship
Wednesday, 7.45pm – Sky Sports (Red Button)
Match odds: Leeds 4/6 (1.67), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Swansea 9/2 (5.50)
Leeds are 2nd in the table and favourites for the win, but have only won 2 of their last 7 games.
The Total Corners stats provide the best form here...
Leeds have the top Home strike-rate in the Championship for Under 10.5 Corners, with 11 of 15 games at Elland Road seeing 10 or less Total Corners (73%). This bet has paid out in 7 of their last 8 games, and each of their last 5 at Home.
Swansea boast a matching 7-of-the-last-8 games record, including 4 of their last 5 Away games paying out on Under 10.5 or Under 11 Corners.
The Head-2-Head comparison on our website shows Leeds Home games are averaging 9.1 Total Corners, with the Swansea Away figure the same.
- Under 10.5 Corners @ 8/11 (1.73) with 888 Sport, Unibet. Under 11 Corners @ 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365, Skybet
Total Corners markets also available with Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet.
Preston v Norwich
Championship
Wednesday, 7.45pm – Sky Sports (Red Button)
Match odds: Preston 7/4 (2.75), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Norwich 8/5 (2.60)
Both sides come into this one in good form. Preston have won 3 of their last 4 games and are unbeaten in 5, and league leaders Norwich are the same.
Both Teams to Score is the standout stats match-up here...
That bet has paid out in 8 of Preston’s last 9 Home games, and in 9 of Norwich’s last 10 including 4 of their last 5 Away.
For the season overall these two are high up on our Championship Both Teams to Score rankings, with Preston 80% at Home and Norwich 73% Away.
Preston have scored in 14 of their 15 league games at Deepdale this season. Norwich have found the net in 14 out of 15 games on their travels.
Norwich also have striker Teemu Pukki, who is joint-2nd Top Scorer in the Championship with 20 goals. He’s a 7/5 (2.40) favourite in the Anytime Scorer betting tonight.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill and in general
Stats Picks for tonight…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Tottenham v Dortmund:
Leeds v Swansea:
- Under 10.5 Corners @ 8/11 (1.73) with 888 Sport
Preston v Norwich:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365
We’ll be back on Friday with the standout stats & prices for the weekend games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
