Picks & Analysis - 4 bets for the weekend...
Friday 14th December 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Brighton v Chelsea...
- Southampton v Arsenal...
- Wolves v Bournemouth...
- Ipswich v Wigan...
Weekend Picks & Analysis...
Champions League Group F produced two more Both Teams to Score results on Wednesday night. But the ‘Group of Goals’ failed to deliver the Total Goals payouts for us this time, with Man City 2 Hoffenheim 1 and Shakhtar Donestk 1 Lyon 1 falling short of the Over 3.5 Goals lines.
The December football continues at pace with a full league fixture list this weekend...
One game that gets a special mention from my notes is Rangers v Hamilton in the Scottish Premiership on Sunday. There are some very strong corners stats here – but they don’t quite match up for a bet...
Rangers have a 100% Home record for winning the Most Corners, but bookies are asking them to overcome a large -5 Corner Handicap. Hamilton have had 14 games in a row go Under 10.5 Corners – but their one result all season to go Over 10.5 Corners came at fellow Old Firm side Celtic. There are clearer match-ups for us elsewhere...
The latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Brighton v Chelsea
Premier League
Sunday, 1.30pm
Match odds: Brighton 15/2 (8.50), Draw 7/2 (4.50), Chelsea 4/9 (1.44)
Chelsea are short odds-on for the Away Win, but the stats present a better price in the Most Cards & Booking Points market...
Brighton have landed that bet in 4 of their last 5 Home games, and are ranked 1st in the Premier League for Most Cards/ Booking Points payouts. The Seagulls also landed this bet in both meetings v Chelsea last season, with the Blues not picking up a single card across the 2 games.
Chelsea are one of the best-behaved teams in the division. Only four teams have received fewer total Yellow Cards than Chelsea’s 24 in 16 games. Chelsea have got the Most Cards in just one of 7 Away league games, and just one of 11 Away games in all comps this season (at Tottenham).
- Most Booking Points – Brighton @ Evens (2.00) with Skybet, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, 3/4 (1.75) Boylesports. Most Cards – Brighton @ 8/11 (1.73) with 888 Sport, Unibet. Brighton 0 Card Handicap @ 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365, -0.5 Card Handicap @ 10/13 (1.77) NetBet, 10Bet
Southampton v Arsenal
Premier League
Sunday, 1.30pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: Southampton 3/1 (4.00), Draw 29/10 (3.90), Arsenal 19/20 (1.95)
A rare situation for us here, with the standout Match Result option available at a bigger price than the top-rated ‘stats bet’...
Over 2.5 Goals is strong on the numbers, paying out in 100% of Arsenal Away games so far (7 out of 7). Three of Southampton’s last 4 games have also seen 3+ goals. Over 2.5 Goals is 8/13 (1.62) at best. The formbook points to an Arsenal victory...
The Gunners have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and are on a 14-game unbeaten streak. In all comps, Arsenal’s unbeaten record stands at 22 games since August.
Southampton are 12 league games without a win and have lost 3 of their last 4. Against Top 6 sides, the Saints have had little joy so far: going down 3-1 at Spurs, drawing 2-2 v Man Utd, losing 6-1 at Man City, 0-3 v Chelsea and 3-0 at Liverpool.
- Arsenal to win @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, Betfred, 10/11 (1.91) in general
Wolves v Bournemouth
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Wolves 19/20 (1.95), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Bournemouth 10/3 (4.33)
Bournemouth have been one of our top-rated teams in recent weeks. Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 11 of their last 12 league games, and in 13 of their last 14 in all comps.
The Cherries are joint-1st in the Premier League for this bet, including 6 out of 7 Away games (86%).
Wolves have had 3 games in a row go Over 2.5 Goals. And they’re 8 games and counting without a Clean Sheet.
The Under/ Over prices make this 50-50, but the stats say to expect goals...
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 20/21 (1.95) with Marathonbet, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred, 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet
Ipswich v Wigan
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Ipswich 21/10 (3.10), Draw 9/4 (3.25), Wigan 7/5 (2.40)
Ipswich are 7 points adrift at the bottom of the Championship, but Wigan have won just one of their last 8 games – so the Away Win is far from being a sure thing.
The Most Corners market has both sides neck and neck here, but the stats point clearly to the Home side...
Ipswich have won the Most Corners in each of their last 6 games. They have a high 80% Home record for this bet, with 8 payouts out of 10 for the season – including 4 in their last 5 at Portman Road.
Wigan on the other hand have managed the Most Corners in just 2 of 10 Away games, landing this bet in just one of their last 9 Away trips.
- Most Corners - Ipswich @ 57/50 (2.14) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 21/20 (2.05) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, William Hill, 4/5 (1.80) Skybet
Note: some bookies call this market the Corners Match Bet, or Winner Corners FT (Full Time).
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Brighton v Chelsea:
- Most Booking Points – Brighton @ Evens (2.00) with Skybet
Southampton v Arsenal:
- Arsenal to win @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365
Wolves v Bournemouth:
Ipswich v Wigan:
- Most Corners - Ipswich @ 57/50 (2.14) with 888 Sport
There’s a busy festive fixture list coming up. I’ll be back on Monday with a Stats Review, and details of our Christmas schedule.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
