Midweek Stats Picks - Leeds v Derby tonight...
Wednesday 15th May 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Championship Playoffs...
- Semi Final, 2nd Leg...
- Leeds United v Derby County...
Midweek Stats Picks…
Tammy Abraham converted the winning penalty in the shootout last night – but those don’t count for Anytime Scorer bets.
Our Winning Streak pick Abraham (and his Aston Villa side) drew a blank in Normal Time, with West Brom’s 1-0 win on the night levelling the tie on aggregate. Villa went through on Penalties.
The second Championship Playoff Final place will be decided tonight...
FEATURED GAME
Leeds United v Derby County
Aggregate score: 1-0
Championship, 7.45pm – Sky Sports
Playoff – Semi Final, 2nd Leg
Match odds: Leeds 8/11 (1.73), Draw 14/5 (3.80), Derby 4/1 (5.00)
To Qualify: Leeds 1/8 (1.12), Derby 5/1 (6.00)
Just like our Champions League pick on Ajax & Tottenham last Wednesday, the Cards & Booking Points stats point to an ‘Over’ bet in this evening’s Featured Game...
There are plenty of numbers supporting a high-cards result here:
- Leeds are No.1 in our Championship 2018/19 standings for Over 3.5 Cards payouts – including a division-high 78% Home record. Derby’s Away record is 70%
- The Head-2-Head on our site shows each of Leeds’ last 5 Home games and 4 of Derby’s last 5 Away have gone Over 3.5 Cards
Putting this specific fixture in focus, the Leeds-Derby rivalry has produced three feisty tallies already this season:
- 7 Yellows (70 Booking Points) in the 1st Leg last week, and 5 Cards (50 pts) & 6 Cards (60 pts) in the two standard league meetings
The Playoffs often see emotions running high. So far this season’s Championship Playoffs are delivering on that front with all 3 games paying out on Over 3.5, Over 4.5 and Over 5.5 Cards bets.
The final piece in the stats jigsaw here is the Referee. Anthony Taylor has only taken charge of one Championship game this season, and in that game he showed 6 Yellows and 2 Reds (Cards score = 10, Booking Points = 110 pts). Taylor has got his Red Card out 5 times in his last 15 games in all competitions.
The recommended option at a decent price this evening is to bet Over 50 Bookings Points or Over 5.5 Cards. Different bookies call this bet by different names, but basically we’re looking for 6 or more Yellow Cards in the game (or 4 Yellows and a Red):
Over 50.5 Booking Points is 21/20 (2.05) with Boylesports. 60+ Booking Points is Evens (2.00) with Skybet. Over 55 Booking Points is 19/20 (1.95) with William Hill. Over 50 Booking Points is 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Over 5.5 Cards is 31/20 (2.55) with 888 Sport, Unibet, Evens (2.00) with Bet365.
Booking Points betting:
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Cards betting:
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Stats Picks Summary:
Today’s Stats Pick is:
FEATURED GAME:
Leeds v Derby
- Over 50.5 Booking Points @ 21/20 (2.05) with Boylesports
I’ll be back ahead of the weekend with more on the Playoffs, and a look at this weekend’s FA Cup Final in Friday’s ATL Extra email, too.
Best wishes,
Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues |
