FA Cup Final Special - Man City v Watford...
Friday 17th May 2019
In your Across the Leagues EXTRA email today:
- FA Cup Final trends…
- Man City v Watford…
- 11/1 for a double booking…
Stats for the Weekend – FA Cup Final...
We can’t tell you much about the Eurovision Song Contest this Saturday evening, but we can certainly provide you with some useful betting stats for the FA Cup Final…
Man City v Watford
Saturday, 5pm – Wembley Stadium
Live on BBC One and BT Sport
Match odds: City 1/4 (1.15), Draw 6/1 (7.00), Watford 12/1 (13.00)
To Lift the Trophy: City 1/10 (1.10), Watford 6/1 (7.00)
Let’s take our annual look at the FA Cup Final history books...
Cup Final trends:
Stats & betting markets apply to Normal Time only (not Extra Time)
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 14 of the last 21 finals (67%)
- The 1-0 Correct Score has paid out 7 times out of 21 (33%)
- 8 of the last 9 victories in Normal Time have been settled by a one-goal Winning Margin
The FA Cup history books tell us to expect a narrow score-line. Although it’s worth remembering many cup finals are made up of the ‘big boys’ playing against each other. Watford are a Premier League side, of course. But champions Man City finished 48 pts above the Hornets this season.
That said, City’s last FA Cup Final (in 2013) ended in a shock 1-0 loss to 10/1 underdogs Wigan Athletic.
Sticking with the 1-0 theme, that was also the score when City beat Brighton at Wembley in this year’s FA Cup semi final. And in the league, City beat Tottenham 1-0 here on the Wembley pitch, too.
In the Correct Score market, 1-0 Man City is 7/1 – and the 1-0 Watford upset is 35/1 with Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power, 33/1 in general.
Two for the book…
Moving on to the Cards & Bookings stats, two Watford men stand out in the To Be Shown a Card betting…
- Etienne Capoue (midfielder). Capoue has been booked in each of his last 6 appearances. He had the Most Yellow Cards in the Premier League this season (14). And gave 15 ‘To Be Shown a Card’ payouts from 33 league starts. To level stakes at odds of 2/1 (3.00), backing Capoue in every game would’ve produced a 36% ROI
- Jose Holebas (defender). Holebas has been carded in 4 of his last 5 games. A Red Card on the last day of Premier League season has been overturned – meaning he is now eligible to play in the final. Holebas was joint-2nd for Most Yellow Cards in the Premier League this season (12). And gave 13 ‘To Be Shown a Card’ payouts from 27 league starts. To level stakes at odds of 7/4 (2.75), backing Holebas in every game would’ve produced a 32% ROI
Capoue is a best price 9/4 (3.25) with William Hill.
Holebas is 7/4 (2.75) with Betfred.
And to get a nice price on both men to go in the Referee’s book, Skybet are offering ‘Player Carded Accumulators’ options – with Holebas & Capoue paying out at 11/1 (12.00).
We’ll be back with more stats and advice next week.
Enjoy the cup final…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone & Shaun Humphris
Across the Leagues Extra
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