Picks & Analysis - Champions League starts 5.55pm...
Tuesday 18th September 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Champions League – Match-day One…
- Barcelona v PSV…
- Schalke v Porto…
Play the music…
The Champions League is back. I’ve been walking around humming the theme tune for a while now. It’s time to get started…
This season UEFA have introduced two sets of kick-off times, meaning you can stretch out on the sofa and watch games back-to-back…
The actions start at 5.55pm with Barcelona v PSV and Inter Milan v Tottenham in the early slots. Followed by the 8pm games including Liverpool v PSG.
This competition features some of the top clubs in the world – and some of the strongest stats, too. We’ve made a profit from our Champions League picks three seasons running. This season I’ll be in your inbox on every match-day with my latest stats and advice.
Picks & Analysis…
We’re kicking off today with a look at the Outright markets, and two match opportunities for this evening. Match-day One is made up of 8 fixtures tonight and 8 more on Wednesday.
Here’s my take on today’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Outright Winner
A Spanish side has lifted the trophy five years running, with Real Madrid accounting for four of those titles & the last three in a row, with Barcelona getting the other. Madrid are 8/1 to do it again, with Barca ahead of them in the Outright Winner betting at 6/1.
Man City have gone off at 12/1 (13.00) for the last three seasons, but after walking away with the Premier League in style last season, this time Pep Guardiola’s men are the 9/2 (5.50) favourites to win the Champions League for the first time.
Elsewhere at the top of the list we have Juventus at 7/1 and PSG at 8/1, Bayern Munich at 9/1 in general and 10/1 at best, last season’s runner-up Liverpool at 12/1, Atletico Madrid at 16/1 and everyone else at 25/1 and bigger.
I don’t have an Outright Winner pick for us today but there is an eye-catching price in the Top Scorer market…
Top Scorer
The historical Champions League stats tell us that to find the tournament Top Scorer we’re looking for a player to score 10+ goals, and play for a team that gets to Knockout Stage and beyond.
Since 2010/11:
- The Top Scorer has scored 10 or more goals every season
- Players finishing in the Top 4 places for an Each Way payout have all scored at least 7 goals
- All 33 players (100%) in the Each Way places in those last 8 seasons have played for a team that reached at least the Knockout Stage, 88% reached at least the Quarter Finals, 64% reached at least the Semi Finals and 42% reached the Final
The clearest and strongest stat of all though is this one:
Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi have been Top Scorer in each of the last 11 Champions League seasons.
That’s a monumental record and one that will live long in the history books. Barcelona’s Messi is the 5/1 favourite this season, but Ronaldo has been Top Scorer for the last three seasons and a move from Real Madrid to Juventus isn’t enough to direct us away from the 33-year-old yet. Especially at the prices available this time…
We’ve successfully backed Ronaldo in each of the last three seasons, with the prices:
2017/18 @ 4/1 (5.00)
2016/17 @ 9/2 (5.50)
2015/16 @ 7/2 (4.50)
This season Ronaldo is a standout 7/1 (8.00) in the Win Only betting. He’s the all-time leading Champions League scorer and his goals figures from seven consecutive seasons are mind-boggling: 15, 12, 16, 10, 17, 12, 10.
Juventus fit the bill too when it comes to Champions League pedigree, making the Knockout Stage or better in each of the last four seasons:
2017/18 – Quarter Final
2016/17 – Final (Runner-Up)
2015/16 – Last 16
2014/15 – Final (Runner-Up)
Ronnie opened his Italian account with 2 goals in Serie A at the weekend. Champions League Group H has Juve as 8/13 (1.62) favourites to win it and just 1/10 (1.10) to qualify for the Knockout Stage. Their opponents are Man Utd, Valencia and Young Boys. As Ronaldo has shown time and time again, he can score against anyone.
This is the biggest price we’ve seen for Ronaldo for some time.
- Champions League Top Scorer – Cristiano Ronaldo @ 7/1 (8.00) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/1 (7.00) Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Barcelona v PSV
Champions League
Tuesday, 5.55pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Barcelona 1/8 (1.13), Draw 10/1 (11.00), PSV 25/1 (26.00)
Barcelona are overwhelming favourites here at just 1/8 (1.13) to win. The Over 2.5 Goals option isn’t much better with the bookies also making 3+ goals short odds-on at 1/4 (1.15).
The Corners stats present us with an opportunity here…
Barca won the Most Corners in 8 out of 10 Champions Leagues games last season, including all 6 Group games. Over the last six seasons the Spanish giants have won the Most Corners in 49 out of 64 Champions League games overall (77%).
They’ve started this season in typically strong corner-winning fashion…
Barcelona have got 4+ corners more than opponents in 5 out of 5 games in all comps so far in 2018/19, landing -4 Corner Handicap bets (5+ corners) in both of their Home games.
PSV are strong corner winners in the Dutch league, but this is a different level of opposition. PSV were last in the Champions Legaue in 2016/17, where they were out-cornered in 5 out of 6 Group games. Away trips to Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid saw the big-name hosts cover a -4 Corner Handicap.
- Barcelona -4 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 19/20 (1.95) Betway, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill. Barcelona -4.5 Corner Handicap @ 19/20 (1.95) Marathonbet, Bet365
Bet Now – latest odds here
Schalke v Porto
Champions League
Tuesday, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Schalke 6/4 (2.50), Draw 12.5 (3.40), Porto 21/10 (3.10)
Schalke and Porto are the favourites to progress from Group D, which includes Galatasaray and Lokomotiv Moscow and on paper looks the softest Group of the competition.
As such this is already a big game with top spot the target for both teams.
My first thought here was Goals, and I’m surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals priced up as the less likely of the Under/ Over options.
Schalke have conceded 2 goals in each of their first 3 games of the Bundesliga season. Porto had 6 out of 8 Champions League games go Over 2.5 Goals last season, and are 4 out of 4 for that bet in the Portuguese league so far in 2018/19…
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (2.10) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Evens (2.00) in general
Bet Now – latest odds here
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Champions League 2018/19:
- Top Scorer – Cristiano Ronaldo @ 7/1 (8.00) with Paddy Power
Barcelona v PSV:
- Barcelona -4 Corner Handicap @ Evens (2.00) with Paddy Power
Schalke v Porto:
I’ll be back on tomorrow with a look at the stats and markets for the Wednesday night games – when the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will be getting their campaigns underway.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
