Picks & Analysis - Benfica v Bayern Munich tonight...
Wednesday 19th September 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Champions League – Match-day One…
- Benfica v Bayern Munich...
Big boys love the limelight...
Last night was The Lionel Messi Show. The ‘little magician’ conjured up the 48th hat-trick of his career as Barcelona waltzed past PSV, 4-0.
The Spanish side also bossed the corners, 8-1, to land our Barcelona -4 Corner Handicap bets with room to spare. Our other Tuesday pick was a missed penalty kick away from an Over 2.5 Goals payout, with Schalke and Porto playing out a 1-1 draw.
After Messi’s sublime antics, today it’s Cristiano Ronaldo’s chance to grab the headlines. The competition’s all-time top scorer makes his Champions League debut for new club Juventus, away to Valencia...
Picks & Analysis…
We’re on Ronaldo to be Top Scorer this season at 7/1 or 6/1. The betting for tonight’s game makes him 7/2 (4.50) favourite to be First Scorer, and a best price 5/4 (2.25) to score Anytime.
Ronnie’s old club Real Madrid start their title defence v Roma. Over 2.5 Goals bets paid out in 12 of Real Madrid’s 13 Champions League games last season (92%). The bookies make it short odds-on at just 1/3 (1.33) for another Over 2.5 Goals result tonight.
The stats & prices that catch my eye for this evening involve another European giant...
Here’s my take on today’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Benfica v Bayern Munich
Champions League
Wednesday, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Benfica 6/1 (7.00), Draw 18/5 (4.60), Bayern 8/15 (1.53)
Benfica lost all 6 of their Group games last season, with just one goal scored and 14 conceded. Bayern are priced up as odds-on favourites for the Away Win.
These clubs possess two of the strongest Champions League trends in recent years...
Benfica are top of our historical stats for Over 3.5 Cards, with that bet paying out in 37 of their last 42 Champions League games (88%).
Over 3.5 Cards is available at around 1/2 (1.50) for tonight’s game. But the stats make a plenty strong enough case for taking the bigger price for the higher Over 4.5 Cards line...
Last season Over 4.5 Cards paid out in 4 out of 6 Bayern Group games, and in 5 out of 6 for Benfica.
Five of last night’s 8 games went Over 4.5 Cards and two players saw Red, so there were no signs of the Champions League Referees being overly lenient on day one.
This evening’s match Referee is Antonia Mateu Lahoz. The Spaniard produced 7 Yellow Cards in his last match (Saudi Arabia 2 Bolivia 2), and before that 8 Yellows and a Red in the Spanish La Liga (Celta Vigo 2 Atletico Madrid 0).
Lahoz has shown at least 4 Yellows in each of his last 6 Champions League games, with Over 4.5 Cards paying out in 3 of his 4 Champions League appointments last season.
- Over 4.5 Cards @ 11/8 (2.38) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 6/5 (2.20) Bet365
Also available: Over 45 Booking Points @ Evens (2.00) with William Hill, 50+ Booking Points @ Evens (2.00) with Skybet. Over 40 Booking Points @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Bet Now – latest odds here
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 188Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Bayern’s standout Champions League stat is their phenomenal Most Corners record. They are the No.1 team for that bet going back six Champions League seasons: 60 Most Corners wins from 70 games (86%), including a 74% Away strike-rate.
The Germans are 3/10 (1.30) at best for the Most Corners tonight. The -3.5 or -3 Corner Handicap is the bet we want, paying out at Evens+ (2.00+) for Munich to get 4+ corners more than Benfica.
Bayern landed the -3 Corner Handicap in 6 out of 12 Champions League games last season. So far in 2018/19 under new manager Niko Kovac it’s been business as usual on the Corners, with 5 out of 5 Most Corners win in all comps, including some emphatic tallies with the last 4 all beating the -3 Corner Handicap: 9-1, 0-12, 7-2, 0-11, 3-5.
- Bayern Munich -3.5 Corner Handicap @ 147/100 (2.47) with Marathonbet, -3 Corner Handicap @ 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365, BetVictor, 6/5 (2.20) William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, 11/10 (2.10) NetBet, 10Bet, Evens (2.00) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
Bet Now – latest odds here
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Benfica v Bayern Munich:
- Bayern Munich -3.5 Corner Handicap @ 147/100 (2.47) with Marathonbet
I’ll be back tomorrow with a Champions League update, and then on Friday with your weekend Picks & Analysis.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
