Picks & Analysis - 4 bets for the weekend...
Friday 19th October 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Wolves v Watford…
- West Ham v Tottenham…
- Doncaster Rovers v Gillingham…
- Swindon v Mansfield…
Back with a bang…
The International break is over and we’re back into the league action today. The Premier League returns and the stats lead me to two picks there – as well as a couple of strong match-ups in Leagues One & Two…
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
There’s a full set of Premier League, Football League and Scottish Premiership fixtures this weekend.
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Wolves v Watford
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Wolves 3/4 (1.75), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Watford 9/2 (5.50)
Wolves have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and are favourites for the Home Win. The Goals stats make the strongest case of all though…
Those 4 Wolves wins were all To Nil, and Wanderers haven’t conceded in their last 3 at Molineux. Wolves To Win To Nil is 7/4 (2.75), but the overwhelming trend is that Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Wolves’ last 9 games in all comps. They are 1st place in the Premier League Under 2.5 Goals table on our website.
Watford have failed to score in their last 2 games, and 2 of their 3 Away league games have gone Under 2.5 Goals.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 21/25 (1.84) with Marathonbet, 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, Boylesports
West Ham v Tottenham
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: West Ham 16/5 (4.20), Draw 29/10 (3.90), Tottenham 10/11 (1.91)
Both clubs have seen improved results after a slow start to the season, but after 3 league wins in a row it’s Tottenham that go into his one as the favourites in the Match Result betting.
Not for the first time, West Ham to get the Most Cards or Most Booking Points is the standout bet…
The Hammers have landed this bet in 6 out of 8 games so far (75%), more than any other Premier League side – including 3 out of 4 at Home.
Tottenham on the other hand have only got the most Cards or Booking Points in one of their 8 games. Only Bournemouth and Chelsea have cleaner records in that respect.
West Ham have landed this bet in 3 of their last 4 league meetings with Spurs, and the price looks good for another payout this weekend.
Also available: West Ham 0 Card Handicap @ 6/5 (2.20) with Bet365. West Ham -0.5 HC (Handicap) Total Bookings @ 10/11 (1.91) with NetBet, 10Bet. Most Cards – West Ham @ 19/20 (1.95) with 888 Sport, Unibet.
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Doncaster Rovers v Gillingham
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Doncaster 8/11 (1.73), Draw 3/1 (4.00), Gillingham 4/1 (5.00)
Gillingham have been flying high on our Over 10.5 Corners table for some weeks now, and this game is the best possible match-up for us to go in with a ‘high corners’ bet…
The Gills are ranked 1st in League One in this department, with 11 of their 12 games (92%) having 11 or more Total Corners. Five of their 6 Away games have paid out on the slightly higher Over 11.5 Corners (12+) line, which is the bookies’ marker for this game.
Doncaster are No.2 in our League One standings, and 4 of their last 5 at Home have paid out on Over 11.5 Corners. That includes some high tallies at the Keepmoat stadium: 12, 19 and 16 in the last 3 at Home.
- Over 11.5 Corners @ Evens (2.00) with NetBet, 10Bet. Over 11 Corners @ 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, 4/5 (1.80) Skybet
Swindon v Mansfield
League Two
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Swindon 23/10 (3.30), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Mansfield 6/5 (2.20)
Just one point separates these sides in the League Two table, sitting 13th and 14th respectively. Mansfield are favourites for the Away Win but have been something of a Draw specialist on the road so far, with all 5 road trips ending in a stalemate.
That Mansfield Away form includes 4 out of 5 Both Teams to Score results (80%).
Swindon are a top-rated side for that bet, with goals at both ends in 5 of their 6 Home games (83%).
Those numbers make for a good match-up. Swindon have kept just one Clean Sheet from 6 games at the Country Ground. Mansfield have managed just one Clean Sheet in 5 on the road.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 5/6 (1.83) with NetBet, 10Bet, 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Wolves v Watford:
West Ham v Tottenham:
- Most Booking Points – West Ham @ 5/4 (2.25) with Skybet
Doncaster Rovers v Gillingham:
- Over 11.5 Corners @ Evens (2.00) with NetBet
Swindon v Mansfield:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 5/6 (1.83) with NetBet
I’ll be back on Tuesday, ready for Match-day Three in the Champions League.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
