Picks & Analysis - Atletico Madrid v Juventus tonight...
Wednesday 20th February 2019
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Atletico Madrid v Juventus…
- Exciting news…
Goals, and No Goals…
It was rare No Goals night in the Champions League last night, with both games ending 0-0. It was completely different story in the Football League though, with stacks of goalmouth action and end-to-end drama…
While the stats didn’t get us Both Teams to Score in the Lyon-Barcelona game, Sunderland 4 Gillingham 2 delivered on that market for us – and it took just six minutes for both teams to find the net.
Elsewhere in League One, Accrington 4 Oxford 2 and Rochdale 3 AFC Wimbledon 4 had goals galore. And the Championship weighed in with the only game of the evening ending QPR 2 West Brom 3.
Champions League tonight…
The Champions League Last 16, 1st Legs continue this evening with two more big matches – Atletico Madrid v Juventus and Schalke v Man City.
The initial stats verdict on those games would be ‘low goals’ in Spain, and ‘high goals’ in Germany…
Atletico have kept 3 Clean Sheets in a row in Europe, and Juve kept 4 Clean Sheets in 6 games in the Group stage. These two were paired together in the Group phase in 2014/15, and there was only one goal in total across the two Legs. On our Champions League Historical Stats, Atletico & Juventus are top of the tree for both Clean Sheets and Under 2.5 Goals payouts in the last five seasons.
After last night’s two goalless draws, the bookies aren’t taking many chances on parked buses in Madrid, with the 0-0 Correct Score around 11/2 (6.50). For comparison, that score-line is more like 10/1+ (11.00+) for most Premier League games. Under 2.5 Goals is around 1/2 (1.50).
Over 2.5 Goals is a similar 1/2 price for Schalke v Man City. However, Schalke had 5 out of 6 Under 2.5 Goals results in the Group games, including 3 out of 3 at Home. So it’s up to Man City that bring the firepower here with 6 out of 6 Group games paying out on Over 2.5, and 8 of their last 10 in all comps.
The Cards & Booking Points stats highlight a strong stats match-up this evening…
Atletico Madrid v Juventus
Champions League
Wednesday, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Atletico 19/10 (2.90), Draw 2/1 (3.00), Juventus 9/5 (2.80)
Plenty of European footballing calibre here, with both clubs making the Champions League Final in recent years. You won’t see a closer set of Match Result prices than this, with the Home Win, Draw and Away Win options all hinging around the 2/1 mark.
Atletico & Juventus are ranked 3rd & 2nd respectively in our Historical Champions League Stats for Most Cards payouts. And the 2018/19 form points to an Over 4.5 Cards total this evening…
There were at least 4 Yellow Cards (40 Booking Points) in all 6 of Atletico’s Group games, with Over 4.5 Cards and 50+ Booking Points paying out in 4 of those. With a total of 18 Yellows received so far, none of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage have got more cards than Atletico.
In Atletico’s last 2 Home games in the Spanish La Liga the Total Cards tallies have been 11 (115 pts – one Red Card) v Real Madrid and 11 (120 pts – two Reds) v Getafe. Their Home league game v Barcelona also saw a total of 8 Yellow Cards (80 pts).
Juventus’ 6 Group outings produced 4+ Cards on 5 occasions, with 4 out of 6 games paying out on Over 4.5 Cards and 50+ Booking Points. Those bets have paid out in each of Juve’s last 7 Away games in the Italian Serie A.
The final piece of this stats match-up is the Referee. Germany’s Felix Zwayer has taken charge of 3 Champions League games this season and shown 7 Yellow Cards (70 pts) in each one. He’s had his whistle out for some big teams including Tottenham, Barcelona, PSG and Inter Milan.
The bookies don’t make it easy for us here, with different names for the same bet. And these markets don’t appear on Oddschecker either. We’ve done the homework and researched the bookies’ sites & prices for you. The best options are:
- Total Over Booking Points: 50+ Booking Points @ 8/11 (1.73) with Skybet. Match Total Booking Points: Over 45.5 @ 4/6 (1.67) with Boylesports. Number of Cards in Match: Over 4.5 @ 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365
Total Cards/ Bookings markets also available with William Hill, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 888 Sport, Unibet, Marathonbet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook.
Booking Points bets explained (eg. Skybet, Boylesports):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Stats Pick for tonight…
In summary, today’s pick at the best price is:
Atletico Madrid v Juventus:
- Total Over Booking Points: 50+ Booking Points @ 8/11 (1.73) with Skybet
Exciting news…
We’ll be back on Friday with the standout stats match-ups for the weekend games. And before then…
Look out for an email tomorrow containing some very big news. We have a brand new football betting opportunity coming your way – and it all kicks off very soon indeed. This is a project that’s been in development since last summer, and it’s ready to go live any day now…
Look out for that email on Thursday, with instructions for how you can get involved.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
