Picks & Analysis - including the two Sheffield clubs...
Friday 21st September 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- West Ham v Chelsea…
- Aston Villa v Sheffield Wednesday…
- Sheffield United v Preston…
Planes, trains & automobiles…
The first set of midweek European cup games is swiftly followed by a return to domestic action this weekend…
Tottenham lost in Italy on Tuesday night and now travel to Brighton for the Saturday teatime kick-off (5.30pm, BT Sport). Man Utd won in Switzerland on Wednesday evening and they host Wolves at Old Trafford on Saturday afternoon.
Chelsea won in Greece last night. On Sunday they visit West Ham for the lunchtime TV game…
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
West Ham v Chelsea
Premier League
Sunday, 1.30pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: West Ham 5/1 (6.00), Draw 10/3 (4.33), Chelsea 4/7 (1.57)
Chelsea are played 5 won 5 so far but it’s the price for West Ham’s 100% record that stands out here…
We got 10/11 (1.91) for the Hammers to get the Most Bookings last weekend, and we can get the same price again this Sunday. West Ham have landed Most Bookings bets in 5 out of 5 games, and picked up a total of 18 Yellow Cards – more than any team in the Premier League.
Chelsea on the other hand are yet to get the Most Bookings in any of their 7 games in all comps this season. And have received a total of just 4 Yellows in the Premier League, which is the joint-lowest amount, level with Man City.
Last season West Ham got the Most Bookings v Chelsea, Home & Away in this London derby.
Stats betting isn’t always as simple as just ‘following the trend’ – but this match-up is one that looks particularly clear, and crucially the price is good, too.
The odds comparison sites continue to be little help with finding this market, but I’ve scouted around for the best options available. Different bookies give this bet different names, but they are all essentially the same: Most Cards or Most Booking Points.
- Handicap (HC) Total Bookings in Match – West Ham -0.5 @ Evens (2.00) with NetBet, 10Bet. Most Cards – West Ham @ 19/20 (1.95) with 888 Sport, Unibet. West Ham 0 Card Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Bet365
Also available: Most Booking Points – West Ham @ 4/5 (1.80) Skybet, 7/10 (1.70) William Hill, 8/13 (1.62) Boylesports.
Bet Now – latest odds here
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 188Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Aston Villa v Sheffield Wednesday
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Villa 3/5 (1.60), Draw 10/3 (4.33), Sheff Wed 5/1 (6.00)
The Home Win is the favourite in the Match Result betting. The Goals stats provide an excellent match-up here…
These sides are in joint 1st place on the Championship table on our website for Both Teams to Score. Villa games have given 7 payouts out of 8, and Sheff Wed have a matching 88% record.
Villa have kept just one Clean Sheet in their 8 league games. Wednesday are yet to keep a Clean Sheet at all.
Last season this fixture had plenty of goals, with the scores 1-2 at Villa Park and 2-4 at Hillsborough.
The market doesn’t seem to be paying enough respect to the strong Both Teams to Score stats here, with the prices 50-50. The ‘Yes’ option is the clear choice.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Betfred, Boylesports, Sportingbet, 888 Sport, Unibet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Sheffield United v Preston
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Sheff Utd 10/11 (1.91), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Preston 7/2 (4.50)
Last time we featured Sheff Utd it was for their Over 2.5 Goals form – with a 4-1 win over Aston Villa on that occasion. Since then the goals have dried up for the Blades with a 1-0 defeat at Bristol City followed by a 0-0 draw v Birmingham in midweek.
Their Most Corners trend has remained strong though (7 games out of 8 overall). Especially at Home where Sheff Utd have landed -2 Corner Handicap bets in all 4 games, with scores of: 9-5, 9-1, 9-4 and 5-1.
This trait follows on from last season where Sheff Utd were our joint-2nd team for Most Corners bets in the Championship, with an 83% Home record. They met Preston three times in all comps; all three games saw just one goal scored each time – and on all three occasions United won the Most Corners, with 13-3 and 8-2 tallies at Bramall Lane.
Preston have won the Most Corners in one of their 4 Away games so far in 2018/19. Bets on opponents with a -2 Corner Handicap have paid out in 2 of Preston’s last 3 road trips.
- Sheff Utd -2 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with William Hill, Evens (2.00) Skybet, 10/11 (1.91) NetBet, 10Bet. Sheff Utd -2.5 Asian Handicap Corners @ 9/10 (1.90) Bet365
Bet Now – latest odds here
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
West Ham v Chelsea:
- Handicap (HC) Total Bookings in Match – West Ham -0.5 @ Evens (2.00) with NetBet
Aston Villa v Sheffield Wednesday:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power
Sheffield United v Preston:
- Sheff Utd -2 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 (2.05) with William Hill
I’ll be back on Tuesday with a Stats Review and a look ahead to next week’s fixtures.
P.S
I’ll also be in your inbox this afternoon with Across the Leagues EXTRA, including weekend score predictions for the Premier League, and some more standout stats from on our website.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
