Picks & Analysis - including Shakhtar v Man City...
Tuesday 23rd October 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- Shakhtar Donetsk v Man City…
- Hoffenheim v Lyon…
- Doncaster Rovers v Sunderland…
- Forest Green v Tranmere Rovers…
Champions League – Match-day Three…
It was a break-even weekend for our picks with two out of four winning selections.
The Premier League trends delivered with Wolves posting yet another Under 2.5 Goals result (Wolves 0 Watford 2), keeping them in top spot in the division for that bet (8 games out of 9 = 89%).
West Ham got the Most Bookings again, 3 Yellow Cards to nil (Booking Points = 30-0), in a 0-1 defeat to Tottenham. The Hammers remain the No.1 Premier League side for that bet with 7 payouts from 9 games (78%).
- For the season to date to level stakes, are picks are showing an 18.5% ROI
The Champions League continues this week with 8 Group games this evening and 8 more on Wednesday…
There’s also a full midweek programme in the Championship, League One & League Two.
Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Shakhtar Donetsk v Man City
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Shakhtar 15/2 (8.50), Draw 5/1 (6.00), Man City 4/11 (1.36)
Man City have won 7 of their last 9 games in all comps. Over 2.5 Goals has also paid out in 7 of their last 9. Those options are priced at just 4/11 (1.36) and 2/5 (1.40) respectively this evening.
The Corners stats present the best price here…
The key stat is that City have landed -3 Corner Handicap bets (winning 4+ corners more than opponents) in 12 games in a row in all comps. That includes 8-1 (A) and 7-1 (H) tallies in the Champions League. Along with recent 10-1 (H), 6-2 (A), 10-3 (H) and 10-1 (A) corners scores in the Premier League.
Shakthtar were out-cornered 5-9 by Hoffenheim in their opening Group F Home game – despite being behind on the scoreboard for most of the match.
This dominant City trend is one to follow, and backed up by their high Possession figures – averaging 65% Away in the Premier League, and 67% in Europe.
- Man City -3 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10 ) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetVictor, Evens (2.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/11 (1.91) Skybet, Bet365
Hoffenheim v Lyon
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Hoffenheim 21/20 (2.05), Draw 29/10 (3.90), Lyon 13/5 (3.60)
Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in every game so far in Group F. This one is a strong contender to continue that trend…
Hoffenheim have been a ‘goals galore’ team this season, with 11 out of 11 Both Teams to Score results in all comps, and 10 out of 11 for Over 2.5 Goals.
Six of Lyon’s last 8 games have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including a 2-2 draw with Shakhtar on Champions League Match-day Two.
With two rounds played, the French side sit top of the Group F table, while the Germans are bottom with just one point. There’s all to play for in this Group and the stats point clearly to more goals this evening.
Doncaster Rovers v Sunderland
League One
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Doncaster 6/4 (2.50), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Sunderland 15/8 (2.88)
Just one point separates these two promotion hopefuls in the League One table – and the Match Result prices suggest tonight’s game is anyone’s.
The Goals stats are the key here…
Doncaster are without a Clean Sheet in 9 league games. That run includes a 3-3 draw, 2-3 win and 0-4 defeat in their last 3 games. Rovers are ranked 3rd in the division for Over 2.5 Goals (71% Home), and Both Teams to Score has paid out in 7 of those last 9 games.
Sunderland are in 1st place in the League One standings on our site for Both Teams to Score, with that bet paying out in 11 of their 13 games overall (85%), including 6 out of 7 Away.
The Black Cats have kept just one Clean Sheet in 10 games, with goals at both ends in each of the other 9.
Forest Green v Tranmere Rovers
League Two
Tonight, 7.45pm
Match odds: Forest Green 13/10 (2.30), Draw 12/5 (3.40), Tranmere 23/10 (3.30)
These sides are in the Top 10 in League Two and their success this season has been based on good defensive records…
Only three teams in the division have conceded fewer goals than Forest Green’s 13 and Tranmere’s 12.
Forest Green have a 100% Home record for Under 2.5 Goals (7 games out of 7). And they’re joint-2nd on our overall League Two table for that bet with a 71% record.
Tranmere are joint-top for Under 2.5 Goals with 11 of their 14 games seeing 2 or less goals (79%) – including 10 of their last 11.
Correct Score bettors might want to note that 5 of Forest Green’s 7 Home games have finished 1-1.
Under 2.5 Goals is the standout bet and the price is more than fair, considering the strong stats.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 21/25 (1.84) with Marathonbet, 188Bet, 4/5 (1.80) Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
Shakhtar Donetsk v Man City:
- Man City -3 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.10 ) with Paddy Power
Hoffenheim v Lyon:
Doncaster Rovers v Sunderland:
Forest Green v Tranmere Rovers:
I’ll be back tomorrow with Picks & Analysis for Wednesday’s Champions League and Championship games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
