Picks & Analysis - 3 bets for the weekend...
Friday 24th August 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Weekend Picks & Analysis…
- Bournemouth v Everton…
- QPR v Wigan…
- Bristol Rovers v Southend Utd…
Potters in a spin…
It’s not been a good start to life in the Championship for Stoke. Four games in and they’re yet to win a game since dropping down from the Premier League.
On Wednesday night the Potters were humbled 3-0 at Home by newly-promoted visitors Wigan. That score-line provided us with a winning Over 2.5 Goals pick.
At the start of the season Stoke were 50/1 outsiders to make it back-to-back relegations. They’re now a best price 33/1 for the drop – with BetVictor making them as short as 16/1. There’s still 42 games to go of course. But if Stoke keep losing, that relegation price will keep dropping.
Weekend Picks & Analysis…
There’s a full schedule across the Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two and the Scottish Premiership this Bank Holiday weekend.
Here’s my take on this weekend’s stats, prices and opportunities:
Arsenal v West Ham is on the radar for an early goal. Arsenal were our top-ranked Premier League side for ‘Time of First Goal – 27th Minute or Before’ bets last season, and have started the new campaign with 2 out of 2 in that category (conceding on 14 mins and 9 mins). However, the bookies aren’t serving up any value for the West Ham game, with the First Goal Time line set lower than average, at Before 23 Minutes.
There are better opportunities for us elsewhere in the stats markets this weekend…
Bournemouth v Everton
Premier League
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Bournemouth 13/8 (2.63), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Everton 7/4 (2.75)
These two sides have both made unbeaten starts to the season. The Match Result market is closely-matched with the Home team given the slightest edge.
The stats say Over 2.5 Goals is the best opportunity here…
After a 2-1 win at West Ham last weekend, Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 14 of Bournemouth’s 19 Premier League games this calendar year (74%). Last season the Cherries finished 3rd on our Premier League Over 2.5 Goals leaderboard, with a 68% Home record.
Under Sam Allardyce last season, Everton were ranked in the bottom half of the division for this bet. However they’ve made an entertaining start to life with new manager Marco Silva, with a 2-2 draw and 2-1 win in his first two games.
There’s also a nice recent history of goals in this fixture. These sides have met 6 times since Bournemouth were promoted to the Premier League, and 5 of those meetings have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals – including both encounters last season.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 77/100 (1.77) with Marathonbet, 3/4 (1.75) Betway, Sportingbet, BetVictor, 8/11 (1.73) in general
Bet Now – latest odds here
QPR v Wigan
Championship
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: QPR 9/4 (3.25), Draw 5/2 (3.50), Wigan 13/10 (2.30)
QPR are rock bottom of the Championship and are the only side to have lost all 4 of their games. Wigan are priced up as the favourites to make it 5 defeats out of 5, but rather than jump on that bandwagon, the stats point to Goals…
After their 3-0 win at Stoke in midweek, Wigan have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals record in the Championship – with the other results a 2-2 draw (H), 3-2 defeat (A) and a 3-2 win (H).
QPR conceded 3 at Home to Bristol City on Tuesday night, and before that they were thumped 7-1 at West Brom last weekend. Last season QPR were 3rd on our Championship Over 2.5 Goals chart, including a 65% Home strike-rate which was the highest in the division.
The bookies’ prices for this game make the Total Goals Under/ Over market around 50-50. Those recent score-lines say Over 2.5 Goals is the clear pick.
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, 22/25 (1.88) Marathonbet, 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor, 17/20 (1.85) Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet
Bet Now – latest odds here
Bristol Rovers v Southend Utd
League One
Saturday, 3pm
Match odds: Rovers 13/8 (2.63), Draw 9/4 (3.25), Southend 7/4 (2.75)
As with the Bournemouth-Everton game, the Match Result prices say there’s little between these two sides. And as with Wigan, I make no apologies for backing Bristol Rovers twice in a week in the same market…
As I reported midweek, Rovers have landed Both Teams to Score bets in all 4 of their League One games so far. In fact, in all comps, they’ve played 5 times and all 5 have ended with the 2-1 score-line, one way or the other.
The key stat though is at Home, where 100% of Rovers’ games have seen goals at both ends in 2018 to date. That 13 out of 13 league games since 1st January, and 14 in all comps.
This trend is nothing new for Bristol Rovers. They’ve finished 3rd on our League One Both Teams to Score table two seasons running, including an 83% Home strike-rate for this bet last season.
So far in 2018/19, 2 of Southend’s 4 games have had goals at both ends.
Rovers’ 100% Home record is the dominant trend here. The Both Teams to Score prices suggest the ‘Yes’ outcome is just a 57% chance this weekend. The Home team’s stats say otherwise.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 79/100 (1.79) with 188Bet, 3/4 (1.75) Marathonbet, Sportingbet, 8/11 (1.73) in general
Bet Now – latest odds here
Weekend picks…
In summary, here are this weekend’s picks at the best prices:
Bournemouth v Everton:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 77/100 (1.77) with Marathonbet
QPR v Wigan:
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power
Bristol Rovers v Southend Utd:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 79/100 (1.79) with 188Bet
I’ll be back on Tuesday with an update on the stats, and a look ahead to next week’s fixtures.
P.S
And I’ll also be in your inbox this afternoon with Across the Leagues EXTRA, containing my weekend score Predictions for the Premier League – and a look at the live TV games.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
