Picks & Analysis - including Tottenham at 5.55pm...
Wednesday 24th October 2018
In your Across the Leagues email today:
- Picks & Analysis…
- PSV v Tottenham…
- Galatasaray v Schalke…
- West Brom v Derby County…
Champions League tonight…
Group F kept up its 100% Over 2.5 Goals record last night. Man City beat Shakhtar 3-0 and Hoffenheim & Lyon played out a 3-3 thriller…
The Hoffenheim game gave us our only payout of the evening. Over 2.5 Goals has now paid out in 11 of the German side’s 12 games in all comps this season.
The Champions League continues this evening with 8 games, and there are also 5 fixtures in the Championship…
Bookies are expecting plenty of goals again in Europe. Over 2.5 Goals for Liverpool v Red Star Belgrade is just 1/4 (1.25) – one of the shortest prices we’ll see for that market all season. And no fewer than six Liverpool players are odds-on in the Anytime Scorer betting.
Over 2.5 Goals is also a short price in the PSG v Napoli game, at 4/9 (1.44) in general.
A couple of opportunities stand out in different markets today…
Picks & Analysis…
All the latest match Head-2-Heads, League Stats and Team Stats are on our website.
Our Historical Champions League Stats can be viewed here.
Here’s my take on this evening’s stats, prices and opportunities:
PSV v Tottenham
Champions League
Tonight, 5.55pm – BT Sport
Match odds: PSV 13/5 (3.60), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Tottenham 23/20 (2.15)
It’s not often we go for the straight-up Match Result market but that’s where the value lies this evening...
Thirteen of PSV’s last 14 games in all comps have gone Over 2.5 Goals, and so have 11 of Tottenham’s last 12 Champions League games. That option is around 8/13 (1.62) this evening but the recent form points elsewhere.
Tottenham have won 4 in a row in the Premier League, winning their last 3 To Nil and Under 2.5 Goals. After a slow start to the season Spurs have turned things around and this is big game, with both sides yet to get a point on the board in Group B.
PSV are without a win in 10 Champions League games. Tottenham at odds-against are a worthy pick for the Away Win.
- Tottenham to win @ 23/20 (2.15) with Betfred, Coral, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet, 11/10 (2.10) in general
Galatasaray v Schalke
Champions League
Tonight, 8pm – BT Sport
Match odds: Galatasaray 13/8 (2.63), Draw 23/10 (3.30), Schalke 19/10 (2.90)
A close set of Match Results prices in this one, and just one point separates these two sides in the battle to qualify from Group D. Battle is the right word – with some high Cards stats on show…
Galatasaray gave us an Over 4.5 Cards winner on Match-day Two, and the Turkish side have long been on the radar for Cards & Booking Points stats. Their opening 2 Champions League games this season have seen high totals of 8 Cards (85 pts) and 7 Yellows (70 pts).
Over 4.5 Cards or Over 45 Booking Points bets have paid out in 5 of Galatasaray’s last 6 games in all comps.
There were 5 Yellows (50 pts) in Schalke’s trip to Lokomotiv Moscow last time out. There have been at least 4 Cards in 10 of Schalke’s 11 games in all comps this season.
The Referee could play a part tonight, too. Benoit Bastien has shown 5 Red Cards in his last 17 games in French Ligue 1. Over 4.5 Cards has paid out in his last 4 games in all comps, including 9 Yellow Cards (90 Booking Points) in last month’s Champions League game between Viktoria Plzen and CSKA Moscow.
- Asian Total Cards – Over 4.5 @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365. Over 4.5 Cards @ 4/5 (1.80) with 888 Sport, Unibet, 188Bet
Also available: Over 45.5 Booking Points @ 5/6 (1.83) with Boylesports. Over 45 Booking Points @ 7/10 (1.70) with William Hill. Over 4.5 Total Bookings @ 5/7 (1.71) with NetBet, 10Bet. Markets also available with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.
Cards bets explained (eg. Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, 188Bet):
Yellow Card = 1 Card
Red Card = 2 Cards
Max. for one player in a game = 3 Cards (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
Booking Points bets explained (eg. William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power):
Yellow Card = 10 pts
Red Card = 25 pts
Max. for one player in a game = 35 pts (eg. 2 Yellows resulting in a Red)
West Brom v Derby County
Championship
Tonight, 8pm – Sky Sports
Match odds: West Brom Evens (2.00), Draw 13/5 (3.60), Derby 14/5 (3.80)
West Brom were a ‘low goals’ side in the Premier League but it’s been all change in the Championship…
Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score have paid out in 5 of their 6 Home games (83%), and goals at both ends is a particular theme. That bet has landed in 6 of the Baggies’ last 8 games. West Brom have kept just one Clean Sheet in 13 league games to date.
Derby are a good match-up here with both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 games, and 4 out of 6 on the road so far this season. County have kept just one Clean Sheet in their last 8 attempts.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/11 (1.73) with Betfred, 7/10 (1.70) William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet, 4/6 (1.67) in general
Today’s picks…
In summary, here are today’s picks at the best prices:
PSV v Tottenham:
- Tottenham to win @ 23/20 (2.15) with Betfred
Galatasaray v Schalke:
- Asian Total Cards – Over 4.5 @ 19/20 (1.95) with Bet365
West Brom v Derby County:
- Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 8/11 (1.73) with Betfred
I’ll be back on Friday with your Picks & Analysis for the weekend.
Enjoy the football…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Across the Leagues |
